AN INDEPENDENT THOUGHT?

Petrol prices have risen again (locally from 129.9 to 133.9 per litre) but as most of us will have noticed by now when it comes to fuel (energy) prices they mostly tend to go up and stay up over the longer term regardless of occasional short-term drops in price. Despite the recession related blips general longer term trend for hydrocarbon prices in much of the world appears to remain steadily upwards.

Partially this is unavoidable due to increasing demands for more energy (particularly from energy hungry India and China), the growing planetary population and the short term nature of our planet’s hydro carbon fuel reserves. This trend is relatively easy to plot (even in the short term) and the medium and long-term consequences of being dependent upon energy resources that you don't actually control should be pretty self evident to even the dimmest Westminster politician.

That said it’s worth noting that there are basically two types of energy resources primary and secondary. Primary energy is energy that is largely supplied without being transformed e.g. crude oil, natural gas, and coal and secondary energy that requires a transformative (often energy intensive and sometimes polluting) process to refine it before it can be used to produce energy.

As of March 2012 around two thirds of UK primary energy demand was met from domestic production. Coal accounted was barely 4% of final energy consumption by fuel in 2010. Almost all UK oil and gas production came from the seas that surround the UK. Peak oil (for the UK) happened in 1999, and Peak gas production took place back in 2000. Since then the UK has moved from a position of relative self-sufficiency to one of dependency on imported oil and gas.

By 2009, imported gas was around 32% of the total gas used. 58% came from Norway, 25% from liquefied natural gas (LNG) from various different countries, 16% came from the Netherlands, and 2% came via the Belgian interconnector pipeline. The increased reliance on imported oil and gas left the UK far more open to supply risks associated with global supply constraints and price volatility. The UK Government periodically punted plans to reduce the need for oil and gas imports, by pushing primary energy production, and by developing low-carbon alternatives such as electric vehicles, biofuels and fuel efficiency.

The writing is not so much on the wall as on TV, as last Tuesday saw the first airing of a Gazprom advert on UK domestic television advert – they sponsor the European Champions League.  Russia has periodically put the squeeze on gas exports to the Ukraine, (currently some 80 per cent of Russian gas exports to the EU flow through the Ukraine) so the real dangers of relying on imported energy from unreliable sources have been clearly highlighted.

Russia (with full coffers) has ridden out most of the consequences of fluctuating oil prices and appears to have managed to avoid any real consequences of declining cash reserves despite its economy being heavily reliant on oil and gas exports. While some countries subsidise their fuel prices (just how sustainable that is over the medium to longer term is open to debate), in the UK this does not happen, so everybody wins, Government gets more tax revenue, the oil companies get more profit, and us the ordinary punters get consistently fleeced.

As for gas, some states have made efforts to protect themselves against external shocks to their energy needs; France was able to store 122 days of gas and Germany able to store 99 days worth (2009 figures). Here in the UK the almost entirely market driven approach turned out to be entirely inadequate, in the UK had a storage capacity which would have lasted for only 15 days (2009 figures). Some countries discuss the issue of energy independence at the highest level here in the UK such talk is best avoided.

New Labour took the best part of a decade to recognise the need to increase storage capacity and the UK has been playing catch up ever since. One consequence of this lack of storage capacity is that UK had to sell gas during the summer and purchase gas again when it is needed in the winter. The Conservative’s headlong dash to gas in the 1980’s was accompanied by a complete failure in strategic energy planning. The situation has been made worse by the current Government's decision to somewhat half-heartedly look at developing diverse reliable alternative energy sources whilst pursing yet another dash for gas.  

The last New Labour Government and the current Con Dem Government largely ignored repeated warnings that the lack of sustainable energy has set the UK on a path towards higher domestic energy prices and potential power blackouts. Over the next four to six years almost all of our old nuclear reactors, along with nine major coal and oil-fired power stations, will be run down and closed, with nothing ready to replace them.

We are now in the situation where we will become even more dependent upon imported gas from either unstable regions or dubious suppliers. The Con Dem’s solution to was to rush to go Nuclear and to effectively hand the Nuclear industry lock stock and barrel over to French energy companies who are busy paying off large loans to the French government. Anyway that was the plan, although the wheels seem to be coming of that particular wagon.

Now Cameron (and Westminster’s) focus is on Shale Oil/Gas as the great panacea for the UK’s energy problems – the problem is unlike primary energy sources the extraction and preparation of shale oil/gas is energy intense and certainly based on the Canadian experience exceptionally polluting. Even if Europe chooses not to chase Shale then developments elsewhere in the world could mean that as had been said elsewhere we can effectively kiss goodbye to curbing climate chance for ever and bequeath rising sea levels, wild weather and pollution to our descendants.

Even if the environmental and pollution issues could be addressed (and we don’t appear to be anywhere close to doing that at the moment ) there are other significant issues. For one, Shale oil/gas is a finite resource, there is just like oil, coal and gas, there is little chance of extracting 100% of reserves. What we may be talking about extracting something like 40 or 50% of it – which might last around 10 years – the big question is what happens then? While we use the brief window of Shale based energy are we going to develop secure energy supplies for the future or is this merely short term fix?

What successive Westminster Governments (since 1997) should have done was to  work with the devolved governments and the Irish Government to make these islands entirely self sufficient via renewable non market driven energy resources run by not for profit companies. They should have developed a flexible self-sufficient energy development strategy that encourages decentralised microgeneration. This could create jobs, useful skills and bootstrap the economy out of the recession as well as helping consumers by delivering community beneficial energy schemes – significantly successive Westminster governments have chosen not to do this.

Wales needs direction not Carwyn’s platitudes when it comes to the development of safe and secure energy resources. The renewable energy sector can play a key role in creating sustainable green energy jobs for local people, not damage the environment and provide our communities with a long-term viable economic energy future, that’s should be the real future dividend for our communities rather than the shareholders in the City or provide well paid jobs on the board for former Westminster politicians. 

YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN BOYS...

News that Downing Street has public criticised the retailers for their silence in the on-going horsemeat scandal may well be a significant development in the questionable relationship between the politicians (at Westminster and elsewhere) and the large supermarket retailers. With Downing Street criticising the apparent reluctance of stores involved in selling affected products to step up to the plate and comment publicly on the horsemeat crisis – this could be interpreted as David Cameron telling the supermarkets that they are on their own and that its time to face the music.

The BBC quoting Number 10 sources reported that they were told that “it isn't acceptable for retailers to remain silent while customers have been misled about the content of the food they have been buying". They also allegedly said that  those selling affected products should answer key questions such as how did the crisis arise, what inquiries have supermarkets made about their suppliers and how can any similar problems be avoided in the future.

Some people will always seek to maximise profits, regardless of the consequences for the rest of us. This whole sorry saga is about chasing profit, with the pressure coming down from above for the cheapest red meat, so that profits can be maximised by the retailers at the cost of quality. The retailers silence is telling, as their persistent failure to ask too many questions (or looking the other way) on the part of the larger retailers has led us to where we are now.

Irish food inspectors announced last month they had found horsemeat in some beefburgers made by firms in the Irish Republic and the UK, and sold by a number of UK supermarket chains including Tesco, Iceland, Aldi and Lidl. Since then, a growing number of UK retailers have recalled processed beef products found to contain horse DNA. UK police are currently investigating allegations that horsemeat was mislabelled as beef have arrested three men on suspicion of offences under the Fraud Act.

In response to finding themselves (temporarily) out in the cold some the reluctant purveyors of hidden horsemeat said that they would speak out once the results of tests to determine the presence of horsemeat in processed meals are released. The first results of industry-wide tests are due to be released sometime today (Friday 15th February 2013), they were ordered by the Food Standards Agency after the revelation that quantities of horsemeat had entered some beef ready meals.

Samples of beef products have been examined in laboratories for traces of horse DNA as part of the tests, and food retailers said they would have results from about 30% of their product ranges.
Retailers said getting through all their processed beef ranges could take several weeks. Some shops have already recalled products they found to be contaminated - including Asda which withdrew a beef bolognese sauce on Thursday, the first fresh beef product to be involved. Aldi, Tesco and Findus have also withdrawn some beef-based ready meals.

The problem with hidden horsemeat is not limited to the UK and Ireland as food safety experts from across Europe are due to meet in Brussels this morning to  try to draw up plans on how to conduct DNA testing of a large number of beef food products across much of the continent in the next few g weeks. This meeting follows accusations from the French government who accused meat processing company Spanghero of knowingly selling horsemeat labelled as beef. The firm has denied the allegations, saying it only ever dealt in meat it believed to be beef.

In the wake of the hidden horsemeat scandal it will come as no real surprise that trade in local butcher’s shops has risen by around 15%. What’s important is that the entire meat industry isn't tarred with the same brush and that people finally recognise the benefits of buying produce sourced locally. Here in Wales, we have excellent quality red meat much of which reaches us through our local butcher and other local shops rather than the larger retail outlets.

Our surviving local butchers and local shops are the vital backbone of the Welsh meat industry, so it’s important that they receive the support they need and deserve. This horsemeat scandal will knock customer confidence in the supermarkets, so what better way of helping this important sector of our local economy than by buying the safer, healthier option in local butchers shops and giving a much needed boost to some of our small businesses.

A BILLION POUND BETRAYAL!

News that there will be real-term cuts in the EU Budget which could hit hard some of Wales' poorest communities is not good news. We are set to lose out on around £1 billion pounds over the next seven years, which threatens to jeopardise the future of important fields such as agriculture and education. Seeking to score points Labour in Wales MPs voted alongside Conservative Euro sceptic MP’s simply to show loyalty to their colleagues in London rather than to stand up for the people they are allegedly supposed to be representing as MP’s for constituencies in Wales.

Plaid Cymru's Jonathan Edwards MP  said:

"The confirmation that the EU Budget faces real-terms cut is devastating news for Wales.

"As a net beneficiary of EU membership, some areas of Wales receive structural funds for all-important fields such as agriculture and education - funding which is vitally important for some of our poorest communities that are not only some of the worst off in Wales but throughout Europe.

"Areas such as West Wales and the Valleys are new set to miss out on vital EU cash that could have helped develop our economy.

"Those Labour MPs who voted with right-wing Eurosceptics must now make a public apology to the people they have betrayed for their role in the vote that started the chain of events leading to today's announcement.

"Plaid Cymru have always maintained that Wales' future lies within Europe. It is now clearer than ever that we are the only party working in the Welsh national interest."

Now when it comes to Europe I think there is a clear need for reform and proper democratic accountability. Regional policy is important to Wales, what’s alarming is that many people in our country appear to have missed the fact that both the Conservative and the Labour parties are calling for an end to EU regional policy. Thanks to the EU’s regional policy we have tapped into significant structural funding to create jobs and build the economy in some of our poorest areas, as well as substantial agricultural support for our farmers across our rural areas.

We have received more than 2 billion pounds in EU structural funding over the past seven years not to mention other forms of financial support for example, for students, fisheries and small businesses.  What’s actually been done with the money and how effectively it has been spent is another issue! Perhaps if those Labour in Wales and Conservative MP’s in Westminster had actually worked for Wales and protected Welsh interests then we would never have needed or been eligible for European regional funding in the first place.

IN FLANDERS FIELD...

The Welsh Memorial in Flanders Campaign aims to build a cromlech in Flanders to commemorate all Welsh soldiers who served during the First World War. The plan is to have the monument completed by the centenary of the war's outbreak in 2014. Local residents in Flanders have already donated land for the memorial. The Passchendaele Society suggested there should be a memorial to the Welsh soldiers who fought in the area. The Society and the Langemark Commune joined forces to purchase a piece of ground near Iron Cross on the Pilckem Ridge and planning permission was granted.

In 1917 there was significant Welsh involvement in the Salient with the 38th (Welsh) Division, the 29th Division with the 2nd South Wales Borderers and the 2nd Battalion, Monmouthshire Regiment and the Welsh Guards in the Guards Division all serving at the front. The memorial will honour all Welshmen serving in many other Welsh units throughout the Salient from 1914 onwards and also in the multitude of non-Welsh units, not to forget the artillery, medical, supply and Tunnelling Companies, amongst other units.

Wales lost more men per capita than any other nation involved in the conflict. The appeal has raised around £11,000 pounds and the stones for the cromlech have been donated, but another £60,000 pound is needed to complete the memorial. Anyone wishing to contribute towards the project can pay direct into a Lloyds/TSB account under Sort Code 30-93-53 and make cheques out to ‘Welsh memorial in Flanders campaign’.

WE DON’T DO CULTURE?

The ongoing budget cuts being made by the Labour in Newport run City Council run the risk of doing some pretty long term damage across the city, with potential loss of jobs at the council, the loss of the in schools music programme, the reduction in sports facilities and the loss of the popular superdragons programme to name but a few. This is only the beginning as a result of Labour in Newport City Councils latest budget cuts - the Newport Art Gallery Temporary Exhibitions Programme has been scrapped. The latest budget cuts as approved by Labour Cabinet members will see the gallery lose the programme in its entirety as a public service with an approximate cost saving of around £40,000 per year.

The Temporary Exhibitions Programme offered the Council long term strategic potential, high profile and high quality public programmes. It should be a showcase for cultural programming that benefits the city and brought in significant additional Arts Council of Wales funding and investment. Had the programme survived then it would have greatly enhanced the development of a new Newport County Council cultural strategy. The decision to cut the programme appears to have been based on a simple cost saving rather than strategic thought.

This was the only artistic programme in the art gallery (which still has fixed displays of objects and art from the museum collection). Back in August the newly refurbished spaces launched an exhibition of paintings by Geraint Evans, as late as October the Llew Smith radical Christmas card exhibition (no doubt this was Labour in Newport approved culture) was opened. These exhibitions brought in new and repeat visitors to the art gallery, and museum and generated positive publicity and public interest. The plan (such as it is) is for the Temporary Exhibitions Programme to be replaced with a single static exhibition drawn from the permanent collections (and no further programming thereafter).

The Temporary Exhibitions Programme was a city centre attraction (they even ran an exhibition on the Newport County’s 100th anniversary) which brought much needed visitors to the centre of Newport. It enjoyed sustained success and maintained visitor levels in recent years – and it also tapped into funding from Arts Council of Wales. Ironically 2013, was planned (pre-cut) to be a very high profile year with 14 planned exhibitions (double the previous number despite a smaller budget).

Now our Art Gallery, if rumours are to be believed, may close entirely within a year – Labour in Newport’s self justifying logic may run along the lines of there is no point in maintaining a Temporary Exhibition Programme if there won’t be a galley! Yet artistic programming, in theatres, arts centres, galleries and museums can play an important part in developing a healthy and sustainable culture.

More recent budget cuts along with the proposed new budget cut have been developed without any consultation, being entirely a local management decision. As a result of two recent Museums and Heritage restructures the city’s museums and heritage service has been left with a vastly reduced portfolio - Tredegar House is now run by the National Trust (this was a sensible decision as to avoid a well loved asset being run into the ground) and our transporter bridge has become a seasonal project. Staff reductions at both the Museum and Art Gallery and The Medieval Ship Project have taken place with the loss of a number of non-managerial jobs.

The Labour in Newport City Council never put this and countless other proposals for budget cuts out for consultation as it is writ the Labour in Newport ruling group rubber stamp will follow on the 26th February 2013. The Labour in Newport ruling group has almost entirely without any public knowledge (save for the valiant efforts of the South Wales Argus and campaigners) or consultation rolled through a series of severe budget cuts.

Little more than lip service to any real form of public consultation has been paid; as while asking on-line for comments on the budget no details of the actually budget can actually be obtained. It’s pretty clear that Labour in Newport don’t do culture or consultation...but they definitely do cuts. Quite how the cuts will be spun to the public by a certain ambitious Labour City Cabinet member seeking to replace Paul Flynn as MP (for Newport West) next time remains to be seen.

BETTER GOVERNANCE FOR WALES?

Last week Citizen Cameron failed to reduce the number of MP’s from 650 to 600, with the proposed reform of the parliamentary boundaries Wales would have seen a reduction of 25% of its MP’s  (10 out of 40). Incidentally the figure of 40 MP’s was merely historically plucked out of the air. A number of Labour’s in Wales’s elected representatives would have been culled, hence the loud and persistent bleating from some of those usual suspects. Aside from Citizen Cameron’s patience being tried what has been lost was a much needed opportunity to reform the way our National Assembly members are elected.

Lord Elis-Thomas, interviewed on BBC Wales' The Wales Report (last Sunday) advocated reducing the number of Wales' local authorities as part of a wider package of reform, which included reducing the number of Welsh MPs and increasing the number of assembly members. He was absolutely right to link reform of governance at all levels with the introduction of Single Transferable Vote system of voting.  If we are going to reform governance (at all levels in Wales) then it must suit Welsh needs and aspirations rather than blindly following a British model which may not necessarily suit our needs.

If we approach the subject of Wales’s governance rationally then our country is at some levels actually somewhat overburdened with elected representatives. Wales with a population of 3.06 million has 60 AMs, 40 MP’s (at the moment), 4 MEPS; we have 1264 councilors (one for every 1830 electors). Wales also has around 8000 community councillors; out of some 875 'communities' in Wales, 735 of them have a council. Let’s not forget our unelected tier of government with its Assembly Government Sponsored Bodies, Assembly Sponsored Public Bodies (formerly known as quangos) and the seven Health Boards.

So how does Wales compare with other countries when it comes to governance? Scotland with a population of 5.2 million people has 59 MPs, 129 MSP’s and 6 MEP’s. Scotland has 1,222 councilors (one for every 3180 electors) and 32 unitary authorities. There are also 1,200 community council’s in Scotland, incidentally a country where the law states that candidates cannot stand on a party-political ticket. Scotland also has 14 Health Boards, 7 regional transport partnerships, while the Police and  Emergency services are currently undergoing reorganisation.

Slovenia with a population of 2.05 million with 90 elected representatives in its Assembly (88 directly elected and 2 representatives for the Hungarian and Italian minorities) and 7 MEP’s. Slovenia has 211 municipalities (eleven are urban municipalities), all the municipalities have local autonomy. Each municipality has an elected Mayor (elected every 4 years), and a Municipal Council. In the most of the municipalities, the municipal council is elected via PR with some smaller municipalities using a plurality voting system. Slovenia’s urban municipalities have elected Town or City Councils. The country also has 62 administrative districts which are merely territorial sub-units of government administration, each of which has a Head of the Unit who is appointed by the Minister of Public Administration.

A strong case can and should be made for our 22 local authorities to be reorganised into between five and seven counties (with Cardiff as a municipal region in its own right). Such a reorganisation would match the already completed reorganisation of our local health boards which have been reduced in number to seven.  The Conservatives ideologically driven reorganisation of local government in the 1990’s aside from being flawed, replaced several large authorities with 22 smaller authorities. This had more to do with breaking up perceived centres of monolithic Labour power and trying to create local authorities that he conservatives might win control of, than making local government more efficient.

Locally the former county of Gwent was abolished being replaced by five councils which covered; Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Newport and Monmouth. Almost overnight, one chief executive was replaced by five seperate chief executives, five heads of education, five heads of social services and deputies, etc, etc. Any relative economies of scale vanished being replaced by five seperate purchasing organisations, etc. Many of the local authorities, well before the age of austerity in which we no languish were struggling to make ends meet and most of them had to operate with poor financial settlements.

Our institutions at all levels need to be fully democratic being elected with Single Transferable Vote and multiple member constituencies so that they cease to dominated by single political parties and are fit for the twenty first century, rather than the nineteenth. Along the way we can cull the number of highly paid council cabinet members, reduce the number of councilors, and reintroduce some joined up thinking along with sensible economies of scale, and cut out that local government middle management tier without cutting front line services.

THE SYSTEM NEVER FAILS ONLY INDIVIDUALS...

We live in interesting times, public transport wise at least, with the distinct possibility that the rail franchise system operating system, rather than the trains themselves, is ceasing to operate. The UK Transport secretary has instructed preparations be made for Directly Operated Railways, which is a government owned company, to undertake the minimum preparatory measures necessary to operate train services in the event of a failure to agree the terms of an interim agreement with the existing Franchise operator for the Great Western rail franchise.

This announcement follows the news that the competition to run the Great Western rail franchise between south Wales and London is being scrapped. This follows advice from the Chair of Eurostar Richard Brown who has been investigating the collapse of the West Coast Main Line franchise deal. Back in March (2012) FirstGroup, National Express, Stagecoach, and Arriva (part of Deutsche Bahn) were all short-listed for the Great Western franchise.

The UK Transport Secretary (Patrick McLoughlin) is looking to negotiate an interim franchise of at least two years with current operator FirstGroup. In a Parliamentary statement, the UK Transport Secretary announced that he would begin "a more fundamental review of the franchise proposition, recognising that this is a large and complex franchise which will need to manage service delivery whilst the route is electrified and new rolling stock is introduced."

A parliamentary report into the collapse of the West Coast Main line franchise deal, was not unanimous, several committee members markedly choose not to blame government ministers. The report which scrutinised the scrapping of the £5 billion pound franchise revealed that the decision cost around £50 million pounds of public money.

The Department for Transport has chosen to blame human error for the fiasco and admitting that "Independent experts concluded the collapse of the West Coast franchise programme was caused by a number of failures including inadequate planning and weak governance structure, but not systematic failings in the department.” Despite this the DfT has chosen resume the competition for the Essex Thameside (15 years), Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern franchise (7 years), while suspending the completion for the Great Western franchise.

The collapse of the West Coast Main Line franchise deal which MPs said was the result of "irresponsible decisions" and "major failures" on the part of the DfT and the civil service people may wonder whether the rail franchise system is fit for purpose. Interestingly enough back in July 2009, the then New Labour government stepped in to run a failing private rail franchise - the East Coast Rail Service - which was a polite way to effectively nationalise it, because National Express was in difficulty. National Express also ran the Stanstead Express, East Anglia and c2c - but walked away from running the East Coast Service (which it operated as standalone company, NXEC) yet got to carry on running those bits of the network it could squeeze a profit from?

All of this nonsense is carried on at our expense. Clearly the rail franchise system is no longer working as envisaged when the railways were broken up privatised. It’s time to do something different and to run our railways on a not-for-distributable-profit basis, so that profits would be ring fenced for reinvestment in rail services rather than pumping up the profits and the dividends.