NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT...

William Hague (the UK Foreign Secretary) has said that he is not ruling anything out in relation the situation in Syria - anything save any action to protect the Syrian people - that is. The whole situation reminds me in many ways of the early months of Bosnia in the 1990's - where the West made many pious pronouncements about Human rights, arms embargo's etc, yet did little. If you are the ones being shelled by the a government that has been stockpiling arms for the best part of forty years then Hague's words will bring scant comfort.

The UN and the Arab League are failing to halt the killing, the UN is stuck between a rock and a hard place, as both Russia and China will veto any moves to actually act to save lives. The days are gone when Russia and China will step back from supporting and protecting their somewhat bloodstained Allies at the UN.

How many more Houla style massacres will we see before anything is done? Back in February, the European Parliament backed a resolution calling on Russia to stop arms sales to Syria and allow the UN Security Council to take the lead in resolving the crisis and has actively condemned the "brutal massacre" in Houla , and repeated calls for the Syrian government to implement the UN peace plan. Yet still the bodies pile up.

In many ways it is entirely natural for the few remaining Communist dictatorships like Cuba and the Peoples Republic of China (itself a brutal repressive dictatorship) to side with the Syrian Government. Cuban repression is well documented and the PRC's behaviour towards dissidents and ethnic minorities (and the peoples of Tibet and East Turkestan to name but two) within its own border is a matter of record. China has other concerns and anxieties, spreading democracy definitely is not among them, and stability at any price may be a key factor here along with arms sales.

Yet Syria also has some fair weather friends who should know better, including Cuba, Venezuela, South Africa, Brazil and India (who have abstained on Syria related UN resolutions) who remain silent along with the old traditional ‘left’. There is some irony here in that some of the states supporting the Syrian dictatorship were themselves involved in liberation struggles, they might once had a degree of sympathy for the Syrian people who are laying down their lives for freedom and liberty or perhaps they are stuck in the vice like grip of the past or merely enjoying the trappings of power.

THE HUMAN COST OF A UN VETO

The people of Homs (and the rest of Syria) continue to pay the price for the Peoples Republic of China and Russia giving the green light to Syria's rulers to slaughter its opponents. Russia and China have now twice vetoed UN action on Syria. President Assad and his government used the veto as an effective licence to kill those Syrian people who oppose them. Human rights groups and activists say more than 7,000 people have been killed by Syrian security forces since the uprising began last March.

The UN actually stopped estimating the death toll in Syria after it passed 5,400 in January, saying it was too difficult to confirm the figures. Syrian Government forces have been battering the rebel stronghold of Homs since last week. It has been estimated at least 95 people died in the city last Monday alone. The Syrian government has publicly vowed to pursue the offensive until "order" is restored and state television has denied that there had been any bombardment.



Russia may persist in maintaining its relationship with the Syrian dictatorship; sue to a combination of arms sales, strategic desire for a warm water port and a lingering resentment in the corridors of the Kremlin to having lost the Cold War. It has been estimated that some 10% of Russia's global arms sales go to Syria, with current contracts being possibly worth as much as $1.5 billion (£950 million). Aside from ammunition, recent sales have included military training aircraft, air defence systems and anti-tank weapons. The icing on the cake though is the fact that the Assad regime provides the Russian navy with a navy base at the port of Tartus (which is Russia's last base outside of the former Soviet Union).

It's entirely natural for the Peoples Republic of China itself a brutal repressive dictatorship to side with the Syrian Government. The PRC’s behaviour towards ethnic minorities (and the peoples of Tibet and Xinxiang / East Turkestan to name but two) within its own border is a matter of record. China has other concerns and anxieties, spreading democracy definitely is not among them, stability at any price may be a key factor here as well as potential arms sales.

Syria's slightly more fair weather friends Venezuela, South Africa, Brazil and India, abstained on previous UN resolutions have been pretty quiet of late (as has the old traditional ‘left’). Its a little odd that some of the states indirectly supporting the Syrian dictatorship have themselves been involved in liberation struggles themselves, perhaps they might well have once had a degree of sympathy for the Syrian people who are laying down their lives for freedom and liberty or perhaps they are stuck in the vice like grip of the past or enjoying the trappings of power.

However, you spin this, its yet another pretty blatant diplomatic rebuff to the West, perhaps signalling a much stronger stance from Beijing and Moscow who are unhappy to see the weight of the Security Council ranged against the Syrian authorities. Perhaps all of this signals the end of the new era of intrusive diplomacy brought about by the UN Security Council resolution 1973 on Libya last March, overwhelmed by Russia and China's self-interest.

It is entirely naive to think that that President Bashar al-Assad will go peacefully or any time soon. A brutal leader can kill as many of his people as he likes when there are no real consequences for him or his regime over the short time and stay in power. Assad's brutal murderous regime continues to rocket and shell its own citizens and to bring buildings crashing down on top of women and children in Homs.

The West and the Arab League invested a great deal of time and effort in putting together the UN Security Council resolution – which if not vetoed would have condemned the violence and called for a transition to democracy. Such a resolution would have sent a powerful signal not only to Assad but also to those around him that the world had taken note and a potential coalition forming against him. Although the wording of the resolution was weak, making no reference to sanctions or even the specific removal of Assad – both Russia and China quickly used their veto to kill it stone dead.

SPARING A THOUGHT FOR EAST TURKESTAN

It would be nice to think that the eyes of much of the free world are currently focused on China’s truly appalling human rights record as a result of protests surrounding the travels of the Olympic Torch, yet Western leaders who are desperately anxious to chase Chinese markets, are largely turning a blind eye to the scale of Chinese repression.

There were some very disturbing parallels between the 2008 Olympic Games and the 1936 Olympic Games, but there was one crystal clear difference, no one today can blind themselves to the repressive nature of the Chinese state towards its own citizens and towards ethnic and religious minorities under its control in Tibet, East Turkestan and elsewhere in the People Republic of China.

It has always been utterly farcical to suggest, for some apologist Western leaders to suggest, that relative economic liberalism and the free market will lead to a more tolerant, open, free and democratic China. The real self-evident risk, if not self-fulfilling prophecy is that Beijing has been quietly using the revenue and monies generated by economic growth and trade with the rest of the world to merely to retool and rearm its forces of oppression.

A combination of the run-up to the games and China’s desire to trade with the rest of the world meant that an organised diplomatic and political boycott of the Olympic Games Opening Ceremony could have been used as an opportunity for the rest of the world to let China know how it feels human rights violations in China.

At a minimal level, an organised political and diplomatic boycott of the opening ceremony would have sent a powerful message that even the Chinese Government in the short-term would have found difficult to ignore; that repressive conduct and human rights violations in Tibet and East Turkestan and its own people are entirely unacceptable.

The clashes in China’s far west, in East Turkestan or Xinjiang depending whether or not you believe in self determination and democracy or not have briefly caught the attention of the media in the West. It is worth remembering that The PRC has ever since the 911 attacks on the USA made efforts to portray Uighur People, who are seeking independence and an end to Chinese colonisation of their land as allies of al-Qaeda.

The PRC has repeatedly accused the Uighur activists receiving training and indoctrination from Islamist militants in nearby Afghanistan. Yet the PRC has produced very little public evidence has been produced in support of these claims and none of it appears to have had any impact on the US Government. The US Military in the chaos following the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan captured more than 20 Uighurs after the invasion.

Although some of them were detained at Guantanamo Bay for six years, none were charged with any offence and the US Authorities went to great lengths to make sure they were not returned to China where they might had faced harsh punishment. Five settled in Albania in 2006, Bermuda took 4 in June, 2009, and the Pacific island nation of Palau has agreed to help the others.

Last century the Uighurs were able to briefly declared independence, but, the region was brought under communist control in 1949 following the communist victory in the civil war. Xinjiang as it is named by the PRC is referred to as an autonomous region, as is neighbouring Tibet. Efforts in recent years by the Uighurs to gain greater freedom have been repeatedly quashed.

In recent years the PRC has been accused of cracking down on the Uighurs – there were street demonstrations and protests in the 1990s - and a further crackdown during the run-up to the Beijing Olympics. In the last ten years a number of prominent Uighurs have been imprisoned or been forced to seek asylum abroad after being accused of terrorism. Outside observers have noted that Uighurs complain of religious, commercial and cultural activities restrictions imposed by the PRC.

The PRC has pursued a policy of attempting to reduce Uighur numbers in Xinjiang by encouraging immigration of Han Chinese (who are the PRC’s majority ethnic group) to settle in the West, encouraged by economic inducements and other benefits. The Uighur are on the way to becoming a minority in their own country, as Han Chinese make up approximately 40% of Xinjiang's population, with 45% being ethnic Uighurs.