BEING AWARE OF THE BEAR

Not that you would be aware of it from the UK media but another positive milestone was passed on the 29th November (2013) when the leaders of Georgia and Moldova signed their countries Association Agreements with the European Union. These agreements are an important step in their bid for membership of the 28-nation bloc, although as pen touched paper there must have been lingering thoughts about how Russia would react.

I am acutely aware that the largely London based and London centric UK  media rarely carries any positive EU related stories, but, as an interested child raised during the now thankfully historic Cold War era, the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, is a positive event. The fact that the largely unheralded (by the UK media) summit was held in Vilnius, Lithuania, a country that was occupied by the Soviet Union from 1944 until 1991, in itself shows how far we have all travelled in recent years.

The problem is that the summit has understandably deepened real fears of harsh retaliation from Russia in both Georgia and Moldova. The Kremlin has reacted aggressively and somewhat successfully to prevent the Ukraine from signing its own EU pact. Just days before the deal was due to be sign the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych walked away from the deal in Vilnius, in the process sparking a political crisis in the Ukraine and revamping the democratic western looking opposition.

Pro-European Demonstrators in the Ukraine (Picture from Reuters)

Thousands of pro-EU Ukrainians poured onto the streets of the capital , Kiev, on 24th November the crowd being  estimated at being more than 100,000 with larger demonstrations being held since then. The opposition continues to demand that the government resign after President Viktor Yanukovych decided to postpone the signing of a deal on closer ties with the European Union.

The Ukrainian parliament debated and held a stormy vote of no confidence in the government which the government just about managed to win. The Ukrainian President’s decision has sparked some of the biggest protests in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution back in 2004.

Only a few hours after the initialling ceremony, the Moldovan Prime Minister Leanca openly called on Moscow not to shut down the communication line with Chisinau. The reality is that Moscow will probably wait until after the Sochi Winter Olympics in February are over to initiate retaliatory measures to avoid any 'bad press' in close proximity to Russia’s golden Olympic moments on the media spotlight.

EU leaders in Vilnius condemned Russia for its pretty blatant bullying of Ukraine into shelving its landmark association deal with Europe in favour of retaining closer ties with Moscow. Russian sanctions could have devastating effects on Georgia's and Moldova's still-fragile economies as Russia is an important export market for both countries and regular destination for guest workers from both countries.

Perhaps this is the price to be paid for not following the bear

Georgia imports most of its natural gas from Azerbaijan and Moldova relies almost exclusively on gas from Russia - a state that has some form for periodically tightening the tap on its neighbours when it wants to. Russia has no right to try to dictate or to approve or disapprove whatever organisations economic or political associations independent countries might want to join.

Yet, the view from the Kremlin (or the Hermitage) is different, the sight of the EU map getting ever larger and drawing in more and more former Eastern bloc and former Soviet (however unwilling) republics is bound to set historic alarm bells ringing, not to mention setting the ghosts of Peter the Great and Stalin pacing the corridors of the Kremlin or the Hermitage. The dominant Russian component of the Soviet Union historically and practically ended up seeing the CCCP as an extension of greater Russia.

Smaller peripheral nationalities were (and continue to be in some circles) patronisingly and dismissed as possessing simple local political and linguistic peculiarities, this somewhat patronising idea, is entirely understandable particularly if you are Scottish, Irish, Breton, Catalan, Basque or Welsh. Or if you are participating in what looks (at least from the South East of our country) to be a somewhat one sided (London centric media wise) debate on Scottish independence. 

Dean Acheson, US Secretary of State under President Harry S. Truman, once rightly said that “Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role”. In my opinion this well perceived observation was right then (in 1962) and is still right today; it’s been fifty years since the Empire was lost and the ‘Brit’ elite have still not got over it or adjusted to economic and political realities of their situation. Much the same can be said for Russia...

We are fifty years down the road since the end of Empire, yet the Westminster elite continue to preside over Fantasy Island and to act out a delusional role on the World stage. If nothing else this should, provide a degree of understanding to unfolding events in the East and Russia’s behaviour. The Russians lost their Empire in barely a fortnight (in late August 1991) and their elite and many (but by no means all) Russian citizens may well be a long way from getting over it and adjusting to the new realities and opportunities. 

NOTICED BY THE BEAR...

Hope for a better country, but not as part of the United Kingdom. There is a strong sense of national identity in Wales, which has helped fuel calls for it to achieve independence, following similar calls further north in Scotland.

And yet the debate continues to rage over whether Welsh ambitions are driven by economic sense or pure emotion.

Wales is a part of the UK and a proud nation, with its own language and customs. It is also the latest voice to call for independence. Plaid Cymru, which means the Party of Wales, has always argued the country would be better off without the UK, and it seems increasing numbers are starting to see their point of view.

“Our economy has been run from London, with the interests and priorities of the South East of England to the fore. An independent Wales would be able to chart a different course, based on our needs and our priorities,” says Adam Price, research fellow at Harvard University Center for International development.

Wales is a long way from declaring independence, but it is no longer just a pipedream. Its people voted overwhelmingly earlier this year in favor of handing the Welsh Assembly full law-making powers. That was considered a turning-point in Welsh nationhood. And Plaid Cymru have undoubtedly taken heart from the landslide victory of the Scottish National Party in May.

That victory gave the SNP an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament, which has many powers devolved from Westminster. The party has promised to hold a Scotland-wide referendum on whether or not to declare independence.

According to Plaid Cymru, that marks the turning of the tide of for a unified Great Britain.

“People now, I believe, are beginning to use the word independence in a Welsh context, which they wouldn’t have done a few years ago,” says Jill Evans, a member of the party. “And as that debate develops, I think the people in Wales are going to see that when Scotland becomes independent, the next logical step is for Wales to become independent too.”

Of course separatism is nothing new to the British Isles, and the thousands of victims of the troubles in Northern Ireland are testament to how high feelings can run, both present day and for centuries past. While national sentiment may not be a new phenomenon, the reasons for it have changed over the years. And in these current turbulent economic times money talks.

Scotland has oil and gas. But while Wales was once a proud coal-producing nation, its mines are now closed, and it has some of the highest unemployment levels in the UK. Because of that, the older generation is reserved when it comes to independence. But young people are filled with national fervor. For them, independence is less about money, and more about nationhood and identity.

“It does seem to be better here at the moment,” one Welsh woman tells RT. “We have free prescriptions, and education seems to be a bit better.”

“We have a lot of culture that we shouldn’t forget about,” says another.

Plaid Cymru says it is going to build on that support, providing not just emotional reasons why Wales should be independent, but concrete economic reasons too. It claims Wales does have resources, particularly land and sea for green energy. If the Scots vote for independence, Wales might not be far behind.

[SOURCE: Russia Today http://rt.com/news]