FOLLOW THE MONEY...

Barely a few weeks ago, President  Viktor Yanukovych’s authoritarian government fell to a popular revolution and hundreds of ordinary Ukrainians swarmed into  the 140-hectare grounds of the luxurious Presidential estate. Here they caught a glimpse of the stunningly luxurious lifestyle that their former President had been enjoying at their expense. Shocked Ukrainians found evidence of an extraordinary self  indulgent (if somewhat tacky) opulence came with gold bathroom fittings, marble floors, a private zoo and a full size galleon (for parties) in the grounds.  

In the chaos that followed the revolution a small but dedicated group of journalists have been chasing down thousands of hastily dumped documents that were found in the presidential estates lake. The recovered documents contained proof (of the former Presidents extravagant tastes) and also documented the systematic bribery, corruption, nepotism and state sponsored violence that have scared the Ukraine in recent years.

The paper trail continues to grow, stretching across Kyiv, the Ukraine and elsewhere (including perhaps to the doors of many large European banks) as other incriminating papers keep turning up. These waterlogged documents may provide crucial evidence for potential future criminal proceedings. Investigative reporters have been working around the clock to dry and sort out the mountains of damp paperwork.

The relatively rapid collapse of the corrupt  oligarchic regime in Kyiv no doubt set alarm bells ringing in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the other corrupt self serving oligarchies. Not so much for the loss of President Yanukovych and his ruling clique, but, because it provides an example of what is possible to people in Belarus, Russia and elsewhere when it comes to overthrowing their own oppressive and corrupt governments.

The revolution has triggered a no doubt long planned (but hastily enacted) series of events in the Crimea and delivered President Putin a convenient military and strategic success for Russia. The Kremlin sponsored events in Crimea (and now eastern Ukraine) have been augmented by a Russian media frenzy. This serves to distract the Russian people from making any potentially awkward comparisons between elite corruption in Ukraine and the systematic corruption that lies at the heart of President Putin’s Russia.

UNFINISHED BUSINESS…

Revolutionary times in Kyiv

The flight of President Viktor Yanukovych (and his government) from Kyiv may bring some momentary satisfaction in many quarters, the resultant power vacuum will, I have no doubt, be rapidly filled by a new Ukrainian government.  These developments may not however bring an end to Ukraine’s crisis as there is a great deal of unfinished business. 

The emergence of the Ukraine and Russia as independent states back in August 1991 was the decisive factor in bringing about the collapse of the much despised former Soviet Union. In Ukraine the demise of the USSR saw the start of a period of political and economic instability which saw politics and big business become deeply entwined and the emergence of supper rich oligarchs (something that also took place in Yeltsin’s Russia). The former dissidents, democrats and the Ukrainian people lost out. Ukraine today has a significant number of mega rich MP’s who have significant business interests (not to mention control of large sections of the country’s media) who have close links with the much hated oligarchs.

Recent and bloody developments in the Maidan (Kyiv’s main square) may have swung the political balance away from the increasingly autocratic pro Russian party that surrounded the possibly soon to be former President Yanukovych. Even as President Yanukovych revealed the terms of the peace deal (signed on Friday) the rats (so to speak) had been jumping ship, unhappy at the prospect of facing some potential consequences for their actions. 

Yanukovych stalwarts were spotted fleeing to Kyiv's Zhulyany airport, where aircraft records indicate that as many as 180 charter flights have been registered since February 19th. On Friday 21st February, a roll call at the parliament session on February 21st revealed that only 131 of the President’s Party of Regions' 204 deputies were in attendance. A flight log, published online, revealed flights to international destinations as well as locations in Ukraine's Russian-speaking south and east. The destinations include Moscow, Frankfurt, Budapest, Istanbul, Kharkhiv, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Simferopol.

Unfinished business

The recent debacle over the EU deal may turn out to have been the final straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back. The reality is that other more pressing issues like institutionalised corruption, in the courts, the police and state organs, problems with the banking system, secure land tenure and difficulties many ordinary encountered while trying to make al living, run a small business or simply to get through the winter have been feeding growing discontent for years.

All of this, along with two partially successful revolutions and some very public violations of people’s human rights has contributed to this revolution along with unfinished business dating back to the country's Orange Revolution in 2004-05. What happens next may depend on where President Yanukovych has gone and whether or not he plays the Russian card and if that happens much will depend on how the EU and the West reacts. Ukraine needs to be free and the Ukrainian people themselves need to make those decisions not outsiders.

BEING AWARE OF THE BEAR

Not that you would be aware of it from the UK media but another positive milestone was passed on the 29th November (2013) when the leaders of Georgia and Moldova signed their countries Association Agreements with the European Union. These agreements are an important step in their bid for membership of the 28-nation bloc, although as pen touched paper there must have been lingering thoughts about how Russia would react.

I am acutely aware that the largely London based and London centric UK  media rarely carries any positive EU related stories, but, as an interested child raised during the now thankfully historic Cold War era, the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, is a positive event. The fact that the largely unheralded (by the UK media) summit was held in Vilnius, Lithuania, a country that was occupied by the Soviet Union from 1944 until 1991, in itself shows how far we have all travelled in recent years.

The problem is that the summit has understandably deepened real fears of harsh retaliation from Russia in both Georgia and Moldova. The Kremlin has reacted aggressively and somewhat successfully to prevent the Ukraine from signing its own EU pact. Just days before the deal was due to be sign the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych walked away from the deal in Vilnius, in the process sparking a political crisis in the Ukraine and revamping the democratic western looking opposition.

Pro-European Demonstrators in the Ukraine (Picture from Reuters)

Thousands of pro-EU Ukrainians poured onto the streets of the capital , Kiev, on 24th November the crowd being  estimated at being more than 100,000 with larger demonstrations being held since then. The opposition continues to demand that the government resign after President Viktor Yanukovych decided to postpone the signing of a deal on closer ties with the European Union.

The Ukrainian parliament debated and held a stormy vote of no confidence in the government which the government just about managed to win. The Ukrainian President’s decision has sparked some of the biggest protests in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution back in 2004.

Only a few hours after the initialling ceremony, the Moldovan Prime Minister Leanca openly called on Moscow not to shut down the communication line with Chisinau. The reality is that Moscow will probably wait until after the Sochi Winter Olympics in February are over to initiate retaliatory measures to avoid any 'bad press' in close proximity to Russia’s golden Olympic moments on the media spotlight.

EU leaders in Vilnius condemned Russia for its pretty blatant bullying of Ukraine into shelving its landmark association deal with Europe in favour of retaining closer ties with Moscow. Russian sanctions could have devastating effects on Georgia's and Moldova's still-fragile economies as Russia is an important export market for both countries and regular destination for guest workers from both countries.

Perhaps this is the price to be paid for not following the bear

Georgia imports most of its natural gas from Azerbaijan and Moldova relies almost exclusively on gas from Russia - a state that has some form for periodically tightening the tap on its neighbours when it wants to. Russia has no right to try to dictate or to approve or disapprove whatever organisations economic or political associations independent countries might want to join.

Yet, the view from the Kremlin (or the Hermitage) is different, the sight of the EU map getting ever larger and drawing in more and more former Eastern bloc and former Soviet (however unwilling) republics is bound to set historic alarm bells ringing, not to mention setting the ghosts of Peter the Great and Stalin pacing the corridors of the Kremlin or the Hermitage. The dominant Russian component of the Soviet Union historically and practically ended up seeing the CCCP as an extension of greater Russia.

Smaller peripheral nationalities were (and continue to be in some circles) patronisingly and dismissed as possessing simple local political and linguistic peculiarities, this somewhat patronising idea, is entirely understandable particularly if you are Scottish, Irish, Breton, Catalan, Basque or Welsh. Or if you are participating in what looks (at least from the South East of our country) to be a somewhat one sided (London centric media wise) debate on Scottish independence. 

Dean Acheson, US Secretary of State under President Harry S. Truman, once rightly said that “Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role”. In my opinion this well perceived observation was right then (in 1962) and is still right today; it’s been fifty years since the Empire was lost and the ‘Brit’ elite have still not got over it or adjusted to economic and political realities of their situation. Much the same can be said for Russia...

We are fifty years down the road since the end of Empire, yet the Westminster elite continue to preside over Fantasy Island and to act out a delusional role on the World stage. If nothing else this should, provide a degree of understanding to unfolding events in the East and Russia’s behaviour. The Russians lost their Empire in barely a fortnight (in late August 1991) and their elite and many (but by no means all) Russian citizens may well be a long way from getting over it and adjusting to the new realities and opportunities.