IT’S NEVER TO LATE TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION!

It would have been nice if the Labour in Wales Government in Cardiff Bay had shown some common sense and ruled out its plan for a new M4 to the south of Newport (the so-called “Black Route”) on environmental and value for money. The Welsh Government should have chosen instead to invest in a high-quality upgrade of the existing A48 corridor; the so-called “Blue Route” which would come in at around £380 million pounds as opposed to the estimated £1 –£ 1.2 billion pounds cost of the “Black Route” – had this happened then the judicial review into the flawed decision would not be taking place.

The “Blue Route” provided a real cheaper innovative solution to the problem of the M4 and would have meant that more money would be available for transport investment across the rest of our country. We can keep our economy in the south moving by investing in the “Blue Route” proposals around Newport. This would be a significant boost to the economy around the city, and would have provided traffic with an alternative route for those times when the M4 becomes too congested.

Both the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors supported this proposal and it would certainly be a much quicker and more decisive way of dealing with the congestion than building a new M4 (which would not open until 2031). The choice of the ‘Blue Route’ would have delivered a high-quality proposal, which would have boosted Newport’s infrastructure at a much lower cost and potentially could be completed by 2018. 

Now I have long believed that when spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road (the “Black Route”) remains poor value for public money as there are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives (‘The Blue Route’) to the proposed M4 Relief road. We have long needed to upgrade the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and we badly need more investment in our railways including electrification of the valley lines and the proposed metro light rail system (less the guided bus way elements).

The “Blue Route” could solve the congestion issue on the M4 by 2018 and provide more than adequate relief of traffic congestion over the period to 2035. The UK Government’s forecasts have shown a 20 per cent growth in traffic flow between 2012 and 2030, the Blue Route would satisfy capacity requirements to 2025. Incidentally the forecast for projected traffic growth in the Welsh Government’s consultation document has already been shown to be in excess of actual flows for 2012 and 2013.

Another real and lasting benefit from choosing the “Blue Route” is that it would protect the highly sensitive environmental sites on the Gwent Levels. While it’s hard to put a financial cost on saving the Gwent Levels, the Blue Route option would save almost £620 million pounds, which could then be reinvested in projects elsewhere in Wales. Even now it is not too late for the Labour in Wales Government to change its mind and take an opportunity to reconsider its plans to borrow and the resultant commitment to spending £1 - £1.2 billion pounds + on a 14 kilometre stretch of motorway – something which just does not add up.

SO THERE WE HAVE IT…

So there we have it the Labour in Wales Welsh Government has made it decision to spend at least £ 1 billion pounds (more like £1.2 billion according to some estimates) of tax payers money on a single project to build a new road. This questionable and controversial decision has been taken despite there being more cost effective alternatives which would allow much needed investment in infrastructure across the rest of Wales.

The Labour Minister made the decision to order the construction of a new stretch of the M4 to the south of Newport between junctions 23 and 29. No one will argue that there are not problems with the M4 when it comes to traffic congestion, especially around the Brynglas tunnels. It’s the choice of route, the potential cost, the environmental impact and whether or not the Minister’s choice will be good value for money that have caused things to kick off.

To this can be added the way the Minister announced her decision unexpectedly and in an unscheduled way, literally on the last sitting day of the Assembly’s term. She chose not to respond to a letter from the Environment Committee before she announced the decision - something that has not happened before. Additionally, so far at least, no questioning of the Minister has ever been allowed to take place on the issue of the M4 relief road – in essence so very New Labour or perhaps so very Labour in Wales.

As for value for money a few years ago the cost was estimated by the Welsh Government as being between £800 million and £1 billion (and possibly up to £1.2 billion) depending on the route. The £1 billon ‘black route’ was Labour’s ‘preferred option’ and it is believed that this is what they have chosen. So far no information on how the project will be paid for has been produced. With the limited powers that the Welsh Government has Wales will be allowed to borrow up to a limit of £500 million in the recent deal with the UK government. All of that will be used up on this project with the other £500 million pounds or so will have to be found from elsewhere. 

The ‘black route’ would cross over the environmentally sensitive Gwent Levels, which are an important environmental site and wildlife habitat, and there are problems with building motorways more generally. Environmental, Business and other groups of people raised concerns during the (what many people consider to a deeply flawed) consultation process on what route to choose, that the Welsh Government over-estimated predicted traffic levels, made use of old data and did not fully carry out environmental checks that are meant to happen as part of making the decision.

By opting for the ‘Black route’ the Welsh Government has pretty much decided to use up all of the Welsh borrowing limit in one go and on one scheme. Even this decision won’t find all the necessary funds for the project which means that they will need to find the money from other budgets, which means projects elsewhere in the country will have to be delayed or even cancelled. 

However, you look at this, this is bad news for most parts of the country and means that investment is not being distributed fairly by the Labour in Wales Government. There is no detail on how the much needed South-East Wales Metro project can be funded (unless it is reduced in scale and made a less ambitious scheme), and there is nothing in the pipeline for the A55 or for west Wales beyond what has already been agreed.

Now no one is saying that there is not a need to improve east west communication links along the M4 corridor but any investment in infrastructure has to be affordable, sustainable and sensible. Plaid continues to support investment in the M4 corridor around Newport. When Plaid was last in government (between 2007 and 2011) investment in transport infrastructure included a substantial investment in the existing M4 along with investment in other areas of Wales.

Perhaps more disturbingly, this decision pretty much means that the hands of the future Welsh Governments will be tied into paying for this project. The Westminster government’s attempt to link borrowing powers and tax raising powers with the proposed M4 Relief Road is entirely unacceptable. The London-based Westminster government has no right to predetermine what the priorities, economic or otherwise of any Welsh Government should be.

We need a whole Wales transport plan and the vision to go with it. The problem is that the current Labour in Wales Government is perceived to lack any coherent all Wales vision in so many areas– this is a basic failure to stand up for Wales and is simply unacceptable. 

Now perhaps the reason for the failure may be down to a combination of poor advice from civil servants to ministers, simply a lack of vision or perhaps more disturbingly simply a marked indifference on the part of elected representatives of Labour in Wales to any other parts of Wales that fall outside what they perceive to be their territory.

BLACK AND BLUE...

It’s time for the Labour in Wales Government to show some common sense and rule out its plan for a new M4 to the south of Newport (the so-called “Black Route”) on value for money and environmental grounds. Instead the Welsh Government should choose instead to invest in a high-quality upgrade to the existing A48 corridor; the so-called “Blue Route” which would come in at around £380 million pounds as opposed to the estimated £1 –£ 1.2 billion pounds cost of the “Black Route”.

The “Blue Route” can provide an innovative solution to the problem of the M4 and should mean that more money would be available for transport investment across the rest of our country. We can keep our economy in the south moving by investing in the “Blue Route” proposals around Newport. This would be a significant boost to the economy around the city, and would provide traffic with an alternative route when the M4 becomes too congested.

Both the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors support this proposal and it is a much quicker and more decisive way of dealing with the congestion than building a new M4 (which would not open until 2031). The choice of the ‘Blue Route’ would deliver a high-quality proposal which would boost Newport’s infrastructure at a much lower cost potentially could be completed by 2018. 

Now I have long believed that when spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road (the “Black Route”) is poor value for public money as there are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives (‘The Blue Route’) to the proposed M4 Relief road. We need to upgrade the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and we need more investment in our railways (including electrification of the valley lines and the proposed metro light rail system).

The “Blue Route” could solve the congestion issue on the M4 by 2018 and provide more than adequate relief of traffic congestion over the period to 2035. The UK Government’s forecasts showing a 20 per cent growth in traffic flow between 2012 and 2030, the Blue Route would satisfy capacity requirements to 2025. Incidentally the forecast for growth in the Welsh Government’s consultation document has already been shown to be in excess of actual flows for 2012 and 2013.

Another benefit from choosing the “Blue Route” is that it would also protect the sensitive environmental sites on the Gwent Levels. While it’s hard to put a financial cost on saving the Gwent Levels, the Blue Route option would save almost £620 million pounds which could then be reinvested in projects elsewhere in Wales. This would give the Labour in Wales Government an opportunity to reconsider its plans to borrow and the resultant commitment to spending £1 - £1.2 billion pounds + on a 14 kilometre stretch of motorway.