IT’S NEVER TO LATE TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION!

It would have been nice if the Labour in Wales Government in Cardiff Bay had shown some common sense and ruled out its plan for a new M4 to the south of Newport (the so-called “Black Route”) on environmental and value for money. The Welsh Government should have chosen instead to invest in a high-quality upgrade of the existing A48 corridor; the so-called “Blue Route” which would come in at around £380 million pounds as opposed to the estimated £1 –£ 1.2 billion pounds cost of the “Black Route” – had this happened then the judicial review into the flawed decision would not be taking place.

The “Blue Route” provided a real cheaper innovative solution to the problem of the M4 and would have meant that more money would be available for transport investment across the rest of our country. We can keep our economy in the south moving by investing in the “Blue Route” proposals around Newport. This would be a significant boost to the economy around the city, and would have provided traffic with an alternative route for those times when the M4 becomes too congested.

Both the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors supported this proposal and it would certainly be a much quicker and more decisive way of dealing with the congestion than building a new M4 (which would not open until 2031). The choice of the ‘Blue Route’ would have delivered a high-quality proposal, which would have boosted Newport’s infrastructure at a much lower cost and potentially could be completed by 2018. 

Now I have long believed that when spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road (the “Black Route”) remains poor value for public money as there are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives (‘The Blue Route’) to the proposed M4 Relief road. We have long needed to upgrade the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and we badly need more investment in our railways including electrification of the valley lines and the proposed metro light rail system (less the guided bus way elements).

The “Blue Route” could solve the congestion issue on the M4 by 2018 and provide more than adequate relief of traffic congestion over the period to 2035. The UK Government’s forecasts have shown a 20 per cent growth in traffic flow between 2012 and 2030, the Blue Route would satisfy capacity requirements to 2025. Incidentally the forecast for projected traffic growth in the Welsh Government’s consultation document has already been shown to be in excess of actual flows for 2012 and 2013.

Another real and lasting benefit from choosing the “Blue Route” is that it would protect the highly sensitive environmental sites on the Gwent Levels. While it’s hard to put a financial cost on saving the Gwent Levels, the Blue Route option would save almost £620 million pounds, which could then be reinvested in projects elsewhere in Wales. Even now it is not too late for the Labour in Wales Government to change its mind and take an opportunity to reconsider its plans to borrow and the resultant commitment to spending £1 - £1.2 billion pounds + on a 14 kilometre stretch of motorway – something which just does not add up.

BLACK AND BLUE...

It’s time for the Labour in Wales Government to show some common sense and rule out its plan for a new M4 to the south of Newport (the so-called “Black Route”) on value for money and environmental grounds. Instead the Welsh Government should choose instead to invest in a high-quality upgrade to the existing A48 corridor; the so-called “Blue Route” which would come in at around £380 million pounds as opposed to the estimated £1 –£ 1.2 billion pounds cost of the “Black Route”.

The “Blue Route” can provide an innovative solution to the problem of the M4 and should mean that more money would be available for transport investment across the rest of our country. We can keep our economy in the south moving by investing in the “Blue Route” proposals around Newport. This would be a significant boost to the economy around the city, and would provide traffic with an alternative route when the M4 becomes too congested.

Both the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors support this proposal and it is a much quicker and more decisive way of dealing with the congestion than building a new M4 (which would not open until 2031). The choice of the ‘Blue Route’ would deliver a high-quality proposal which would boost Newport’s infrastructure at a much lower cost potentially could be completed by 2018. 

Now I have long believed that when spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road (the “Black Route”) is poor value for public money as there are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives (‘The Blue Route’) to the proposed M4 Relief road. We need to upgrade the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and we need more investment in our railways (including electrification of the valley lines and the proposed metro light rail system).

The “Blue Route” could solve the congestion issue on the M4 by 2018 and provide more than adequate relief of traffic congestion over the period to 2035. The UK Government’s forecasts showing a 20 per cent growth in traffic flow between 2012 and 2030, the Blue Route would satisfy capacity requirements to 2025. Incidentally the forecast for growth in the Welsh Government’s consultation document has already been shown to be in excess of actual flows for 2012 and 2013.

Another benefit from choosing the “Blue Route” is that it would also protect the sensitive environmental sites on the Gwent Levels. While it’s hard to put a financial cost on saving the Gwent Levels, the Blue Route option would save almost £620 million pounds which could then be reinvested in projects elsewhere in Wales. This would give the Labour in Wales Government an opportunity to reconsider its plans to borrow and the resultant commitment to spending £1 - £1.2 billion pounds + on a 14 kilometre stretch of motorway. 

IT'S ALL GONE QUIET OVER THERE...

It is time for the Welsh Government to commit to completing the rail link from Ebbw Vale into Newport and to think beyond simply connecting the valleys with Cardiff Bay. We need to build in more connectivity to our rail network and also to maximise the benefits of improvements to our railways by squeezing every possible benefit from the investment of public money, especially in times of austerity then the completion of the Ebbw Vale link into Newport needs to be completed. The restoration of the rail link into Newport from the Ebbw Vale line has an impact well beyond simply enabling passengers to travel to and from Newport. Once completed the final stage of the long promised rail link would enable commuters to travel to work in Newport, Bristol, and beyond without having to drive or catch the train to Cardiff Central. The completion of the rail link could make a significant impact on local rail services. At present within Wales rail serves run between Merthyr and Bridgend via the Vale of Glamorgan. There is no reason why it would not be possible for extra serves to be run from between Hereford, Abergavenny and Ebbw vale, and Cheltenham via Gloucester and Chepstow to Ebbw Vale, something that could add extra off peak services for passengers.

FOR ‘NOT YET’ READ ‘NEVER’.

We live in a strange country where the First Minister is reluctant to take up the challenge of new borrowing powers and a degree of control of how some of the taxes we pay is spent. Perhaps for ‘Not Yet’ read ‘Never’. At the same time the Con Dem coalition Westminster government is pushing for all it’s worth the questionable economic and financial benefits of the proposed M4 Relief Road around Newport whilst simultaneously attempting to set by remote control the future economic priorities of the Welsh government for the next 20 years.

I have always believed that when it comes to spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road is poor value for public money. There are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives to the proposed M4 Relief road in the shape of upgrading the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and more investment in our railways (including the proposed metro light rail system amongst other things).

Behind all the spin and the waffle there are two key issues at stake which are directly related to the proposed M4 Relief Road. Firstly, we have a London based Westminster government attempting to remotely set the economic priorities for the Welsh Government and secondly, Westminster is attempting to predetermine a particularly questionably beneficial infrastructure project that could end up being paid for by the people of Wales for the next 20 years.

Potentially well over a billion pounds may be required to pay for the proposed M4 project, it has been estimated that the real cost may be closer to some £1.2 billion pounds. This project runs the risk of imposing some serious and unnecessary strains on Welsh finances and there are better projects with greater value for money and more measurable returns upon which any borrowed capital could and should be spent.

The Westminster government’s attempt to link borrowing powers and tax raising powers with the proposed M4 Relief Road is entirely unacceptable. The London-based Westminster government has no right to predetermine what the priorities, economic or otherwise of a Welsh Government should be any more than the EU does. Can you imagine the reaction if the EU attempted to tell a Westminster government what it’s economic and infrastructure priorities would be for the next decade, we would never ever hear the end of it, but, when it comes to our country that’s OK? I don’t think so… 

WAITING FOR THE WORD

As part of the public spending review, the Chancellor George Osbourne announced that the Welsh government's budget will be cut by two per cent in 2015. Revealing details of the spending review MPs were told that the day-to-day revenue budget would be set at £13.6 billion pounds. He also revealed that the UK government would publish its response to the Silk commission on assembly powers shortly and details of an "impressive" M4 relief road plan would be revealed on Wednesday. The Wales Office (the Whitehall department) which represents Wales in the UK government would get a cut of 10% in its running costs. The Welsh government budget cuts are part of £11.5 billion pound savings from the UK government's overall spending plans of £740 billion pounds. Mr Osborne has more than once (before today) highlighted the need for a M4 relief road around Newport, while supporters of the scheme, and those who oppose it were hoping that the Chancellor would give the scheme the go-ahead this week it now appears that they and the residents of Brynglas (who’s homes have been threatened by a new M4 tunnel) will now have to wait a little longer before they get a definitive answer. Serious questions remain over how much the project will cost up to £1 billion pounds will be paid for? Will it be a toll road? Just exactly how better the money could be spent?

BORIS, TAX AND SPEND

Boris Johnson the London Mayor has called for devolved taxation for London, a first step to borrowing powers no doubt. The Westminster Government, the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly are able to borrow to invest funds in large infrastructure projects. Yet, we in Wales have no borrowing powers despite having law making powers, a situation that is both untenable and unjust in my opinion. The failure to include anything about borrowing powers in the pending Wales Bill, is a real  lost opportunity and perpetuates the constitutional status quo. 

In the modern world, despite the banking crisis, whether we like it or not governments borrow, the real argument should not be over borrowing powers, rather about what infrastructure schemes that our government in Cardiff wants to invest in and whether they deliver value for money. A variety of  dubious expensive infrastructure projects have been touted from time to time as providing the justification for having borrowing powers including the exceptionally poor value for money and environmentally destructive M4 Relief road.

The hair brained M4 relief road across the Gwent levels would come in at around £1 billion pounds plus and would provide few realistic medium, let alone long term benefits, as it is a short term solution. Amongst the reasons why the option of the M4 relief road (South of Newport) was dropped relatively recently a few years ago; aside for the financial cost (around £1 billion pounds) and environmental impact was the key issue of the funding model. Ministers were advised that not only would the new relief road to be subjected to tolls, but so would the existing M4 would also be tolled. 

Interestingly enough the only other toll road in the UK is the M6 in the Midlands which has seen toll prices increase by 175% since it was opened. Another reason why this option was dropped was because of evidence gained from the operation of the M6 toll road - which had never made any money because motorists can avoid it by using nearby non tolled motorways.  That M6 tolled Motorway has seen the number of users drop and it has done nothing to reduce congestion.

It is simply unacceptable for motorists to end up paying tolls on the Severn bridges, on the existing M4 any potential new relief road.  There are already significant complaints about the cost of the tolls on the Severn bridges and an additional burden on motorists and businesses can no way be justified.  A far more realistic financially viable longer term fix to the problem of the exiting M4 would be to upgrade the Southern Distributor Road – something that would offer a realistic more easily accessible alternative route in the event of any future M4 blocking accidents.

This solution would not only provide an alternative route to the M4 in the event of periodic accident related closures and congestion but would provide much better value for money coming in at around £300 million. If you are going to spend what is in effect public money then the bottom line is that you need to work it hard and maximise every benefit and every gain for the tax payers who will end up paying for it one way or another. With more powers come greater responsibilities  and with them both should come greater public accountability and transparency on the part of government when it comes to financial choices . 

VALUE FOR MONEY?

There is an old rule that you pay for what you get, and it looks like the Conservative half of the Com Dem Government is working hard to make sure that it's paymasters are kept sweet and get plenty of VFM (Value For Money). The Daily Telegraph, has revealed that William Hague (the Foreign Secretary) has actively lobbied for oil companies that make donations / payments to the Conservative Party. Documents obtained by the Daily Telegraph suggest that William Hague personally intervened in a dispute involving two oil companies headed by Conservative Party donors who were refusing to pay tax to one of the world's poorest countries.

These fresh disclosures will continue to shine an unwelcome light come on just how the Conservatives are backed financially. On Wednesday, it was revealed that alleged that Mr Cameron now receives more than half of his donations from City financiers and follows revelations earlier in the year that that ministers had intervened in other disputes involving Party donors. Once political parties start selling their virtues and principles for financial favours, they do tend to lose all credibility with the voters...