SLEEPLESS IN MINSK

Sleepless nights in Minsk?

The real message of the Ukrainian revolution (and Russia’s ongoing attempt to annex the Crimea) despite the best efforts of the Kremlin and some of the energy compromised Middle Europeans to muddy the waters, remains crystal clear. Putting aside the minutiae of Ukrainian politics recent events in Ukraine have been shown those Russians and Belarusians who are bitterly opposed to the corrupt self-serving oligarchies that run Ukraine’s near neighbours what is possible.  It would be nice to think that events in Kyiv have caused more than a few sleepless nights amongst the oligarchic political elite in both Moscow and Minsk. People in Kyiv united to remove Viktor Yanukovych, who contrary to the Kremlin’s spin, appears to have had been caught bang to rights with both hands well and truly in the till. The interesting thing is what can work in Kyiv (admittedly at a price) can work equally successfully in Moscow, Minsk or elsewhere, this is something that even a hastily activated (but perhaps long planned) crisis in the Crimea cannot hide.

After the revolution comes austerity?

The knowledge, that at some point in the future they may face the consequences for their actions (not to mention consequences for helping themselves to former state assets) may lead to hopefully more than a few sleepless nights. The problem for Ukraine, despite the revolution and the Russian occupation of the Crimea may only just be beginning. Now the immediate Crimean crisis is grim enough, but faced by an end to relatively easy credit, cheap energy supplies (at least on Russian terms)  and the consequences of having the state coffers plundered by Yanukovych (and his supporters) there is now a serious fiscal crisis. The EU, the USA and the World Bank have offered to help out financially, but, this help will come with a hefty price tag. The austerity (and reconstruction) package will bring in some eye watering cuts to pensions, government services and subsidized fuel prices, etc. Beyond the immediate eye watering ouch, the austerity package is something that could doom any future democratically elected Ukrainian government at future elections. 

GOODBYE LENIN

Whether the Ukraine aligns itself with the European Union or with Moscow is of some importance,  far beyond the long overdue removal of old Soviet street art, it will define the relationship between the EU and Russia for the foreseeable future. Other former Soviet republics who have been sitting on the fence will be watching events in Kyiv with veiled interest to see what happens and to see how Russia reacts. Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv seeking the resignation of the government for refusing a deal on closer ties with the European Union. The demonstrators protested initially about President Yanukovych's decision last month to suspend work on an association and free-trade accord with the EU. President Yanukovych defended that decision by saying the accord with the EU would damage close trade ties with Russia. 

The protesters, who oppose a customs union with Russia, toppled a statue of Lenin and smashed it with hammers. This action followed a massive pro-EU demonstration on Independence Square on December 8^th that attracted hundreds of thousands of people angered by Yanukovych's recent snub of the European Union in favour of improved ties with Moscow. However, the protesters are now calling for new parliamentary and presidential elections since the violent police crackdown against demonstrators on November 30^th left dozens injured. The anger over the decision by Ukraine's political leadership to pull out of an EU Association Agreement has resulted in some of the largest public demonstrations since the country's Orange Revolution in 2004-05, which were sparked by a rigged presidential election won by Yanukovych.