FOLLOW THE MONEY...

Barely a few weeks ago, President  Viktor Yanukovych’s authoritarian government fell to a popular revolution and hundreds of ordinary Ukrainians swarmed into  the 140-hectare grounds of the luxurious Presidential estate. Here they caught a glimpse of the stunningly luxurious lifestyle that their former President had been enjoying at their expense. Shocked Ukrainians found evidence of an extraordinary self  indulgent (if somewhat tacky) opulence came with gold bathroom fittings, marble floors, a private zoo and a full size galleon (for parties) in the grounds.  

In the chaos that followed the revolution a small but dedicated group of journalists have been chasing down thousands of hastily dumped documents that were found in the presidential estates lake. The recovered documents contained proof (of the former Presidents extravagant tastes) and also documented the systematic bribery, corruption, nepotism and state sponsored violence that have scared the Ukraine in recent years.

The paper trail continues to grow, stretching across Kyiv, the Ukraine and elsewhere (including perhaps to the doors of many large European banks) as other incriminating papers keep turning up. These waterlogged documents may provide crucial evidence for potential future criminal proceedings. Investigative reporters have been working around the clock to dry and sort out the mountains of damp paperwork.

The relatively rapid collapse of the corrupt  oligarchic regime in Kyiv no doubt set alarm bells ringing in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the other corrupt self serving oligarchies. Not so much for the loss of President Yanukovych and his ruling clique, but, because it provides an example of what is possible to people in Belarus, Russia and elsewhere when it comes to overthrowing their own oppressive and corrupt governments.

The revolution has triggered a no doubt long planned (but hastily enacted) series of events in the Crimea and delivered President Putin a convenient military and strategic success for Russia. The Kremlin sponsored events in Crimea (and now eastern Ukraine) have been augmented by a Russian media frenzy. This serves to distract the Russian people from making any potentially awkward comparisons between elite corruption in Ukraine and the systematic corruption that lies at the heart of President Putin’s Russia.

SLEEPLESS IN MINSK

Sleepless nights in Minsk?

The real message of the Ukrainian revolution (and Russia’s ongoing attempt to annex the Crimea) despite the best efforts of the Kremlin and some of the energy compromised Middle Europeans to muddy the waters, remains crystal clear. Putting aside the minutiae of Ukrainian politics recent events in Ukraine have been shown those Russians and Belarusians who are bitterly opposed to the corrupt self-serving oligarchies that run Ukraine’s near neighbours what is possible.  It would be nice to think that events in Kyiv have caused more than a few sleepless nights amongst the oligarchic political elite in both Moscow and Minsk. People in Kyiv united to remove Viktor Yanukovych, who contrary to the Kremlin’s spin, appears to have had been caught bang to rights with both hands well and truly in the till. The interesting thing is what can work in Kyiv (admittedly at a price) can work equally successfully in Moscow, Minsk or elsewhere, this is something that even a hastily activated (but perhaps long planned) crisis in the Crimea cannot hide.

After the revolution comes austerity?

The knowledge, that at some point in the future they may face the consequences for their actions (not to mention consequences for helping themselves to former state assets) may lead to hopefully more than a few sleepless nights. The problem for Ukraine, despite the revolution and the Russian occupation of the Crimea may only just be beginning. Now the immediate Crimean crisis is grim enough, but faced by an end to relatively easy credit, cheap energy supplies (at least on Russian terms)  and the consequences of having the state coffers plundered by Yanukovych (and his supporters) there is now a serious fiscal crisis. The EU, the USA and the World Bank have offered to help out financially, but, this help will come with a hefty price tag. The austerity (and reconstruction) package will bring in some eye watering cuts to pensions, government services and subsidized fuel prices, etc. Beyond the immediate eye watering ouch, the austerity package is something that could doom any future democratically elected Ukrainian government at future elections. 

EUROPE’S LAST DICTATOR?

In Belarus, Europe last old style Soviet style dictatorship, a prominent human rights organization in Minsk is being evicted from its office. The Deputy Chairman of the Vyasna (Spring) Human Rights Center Valyantsin Stefanovich reported on November 19th that the unregistered organization had received papers from Belarusian authorities saying that it should vacate its office by November 26th.

Back in the USSR?

Belarus has a bad Human rights record, something which lead to the imposition of sanctions (including a travel ban for government officials) by Western governments. An Amnesty International report on Belarus noted that restrictions on freedom of expression, association and assembly had increased during 2012. They noted that the Belarus government continued to carry out executions and that prisoners of conscience remained in detention and were subjected to torture and other ill-treatment. Amnesty also noted the right to a fair trial was also restricted.

The Human Rights centre’s office is situated in the apartment of Vyasna chairman Ales Byalyatskim, who  is currently in prison for tax evasion, a charge he has denied since his arrest last year. Back in November 2011, a court in Minsk sentenced him to 4 and 1/2 years in prison and ordered the confiscation of all his property. The human rights centre has been working in Byalyatski's apartment for 12 years. Viasna’s activist have been subject to systematic harassment for years, the Human Rights Organisation was de-registered by the state authorities in 2003, yet has continued to operate.

The opposition boycotted elections in September of 2012 which the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe) described as unfree with the electoral authorities clearly showing a lack of “neutrality” or “impartiality”, not to mention serious concerns about electoral procedures. Oddly enough the observer mission from the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) led by Belarus's ally, Russia described the election as being "transparent and open".

Back in June (2011) 1,000 people defied a ban in Belarus to hold a silent protest at the economic crisis in the capital Minsk, with police holding back. The protestors gathered peacefully in streets close to President Alexander Lukashenko's main administration building. The rally  was organised through social networking sites despite threats from the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko (who has been in power since 1994) that he would "strike hard" against protesters.

Protest rallies in Belarus are becoming increasingly rare as the authorities have been engaged in a crackdown against dissent since December 2010.  After the Presidential election in December 2010 five former candidates and 37 opposition activists to be accused of incitement after tens of thousands of people took part in protests after the 19th December vote which was described by international monitors as "lacking transparency".

SOME INTERESTING READING

The Monmouthshire Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Study, commissioned for Monmouthshire County Council has examined ways in which renewable energy sources can be used in new housing and commercial developments. The report suggests that up to 45 per cent of Monmouthshire's electricity needs in 2020 could be generated from renewable sources. It states that this outcome is dependent on the development over the next 10 years, of power generating schemes involving wind, biomass and hydro technologies.

The South Argus notes that the report states that Wind power schemes could emerge as the greatest potential contributor to the county's electricity requirements in 10 years' time, whether based on a successful planning permission rate of one-in-three schemes, the current UK average, or two-in-three. The Argus also notes that the report stresses that the achievement of the latter rate would be vital if the 45 per cent rate of electricity generation from renewable sources were to be reached, with that figure reduced to 30 per cent if the planning permission rate were to remain at one-in-three.

The report also suggests that there is "good potential" for biomass power development in Monmouthshire. Biomass technology can involve a range of different sources, including forestry and sawmill by-products, commercial food waste, and energy crops. A number of small hydro-electricity projects have already begun in the county, and a scheme to harness power from the Angiddy River near Tintern was granted planning permission recently. The report suggests however, that further work on the potential for such schemes should be carried out.

A positive note is that the report places emphasis on the renewable energy potential from new residential and commercial developments. As well as stressing that such projects need to be backed up by efficiency measures and energy conservation elsewhere, if this happens then the percentage of Monmouthshire's electricity needs that could be met by renewable sources could be higher still.

Incidentally a report (on the BBC) by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) published today goes into some detail about the job creation opportunities for young people can be trained and industry boosted by its plan to eliminate emissions by 2030. CAT, which is based in Machynlleth in Powys, is due to launch its report, zerocarbonbritain2030, at the Senedd. The Welsh Assembly Government has welcomed the report, which suggests greater use of Wales' coastal energy. The report is part of a UK-wide strategy to eliminate emissions for all greenhouse gases and across all sectors in the UK. 

Just in case you wondered why we need to develop sustainable secure energy supplies, largely thanks to Mr's T's short-sighted 'Dash for Gas' in the 1980's and any real lack of any  comprehensive forward thinking energy policy over the last 30+ years and the Tory and New Labour's best friends in the City, consider our dependency on imported gas and the latest spat between Belarus and Russia. 

Belarus has said it will settle its gas debts to Russia within two weeks, after its eastern neighbour started cutting supplies in a dispute over payments. Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Syamashka said Belarus would borrow the nearly $200m (£135m) demanded by the state-controlled gas monopoly, Gazprom. But he added that Russia owed Belarus $217m (£146m) in fees for transiting gas via its territory to Europe. Earlier, Russia's president ordered Gazprom to reduce supplies by 15%.

Dmitry Medvedev said this would rise "day-by-day" to 85% if Belarus did not start paying off its debts, accrued when it failed to pay increased prices. Belarus believes the higher price it is being charged contradicts a customs union deal agreed between the two countries. The row threatens to disrupt onward deliveries to Europe as about a fifth of its supplies of Russian gas is pumped through Belarus. Back in 2009, a similar dispute between Russia and Ukraine saw Gazprom shut off supplies in the middle of winter, affecting millions of people. 

Just imagine being dependent on energy supplies from potentially hostile or unstable regions of the world... Oops!