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Anniversaries are sometimes difficult to forget, eleven days ago (May 18th ), outside the Crimea's capital, Simferopol, 10,000 people participated in a rally, carrying placards calling for "self-determination" and commemorated the 70th anniversary of Stalin’s 1944 deportation of the Crimean Tartars. Many of the 200,000 deportees suffered and perhaps 25% died - some during deportation and others in exile. The Mejlis, the Crimean Tatars' main representative body, has adopted a resolution calling for "territorial autonomy" for the community, Tatar representatives in the Crimean government, and "an end to discrimination against and the repression of the Tatars of Crimea." 

There was a heavy police presence in Simferopol, and military helicopters flying low over the rally. Earlier dozens of people gathered at a memorial near Simferopol’s railway station, the deportation point for thousands of Tatars sent into internal exile. President Putin (who is admired by Nigel Farage) met with Crimean Tartar representatives in Sochi (on May 17th) and stated that Russia would improve the lives of Crimean Tartars. Simultaneously several hundred people also marched in support and remember the deportations in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Incidentally the rally had been banned by the pro Moscow Crimean authorities.

THE SHADOW OF A GUNMAN

A friend of mine summed up Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine perfectly, saying that it is important to remember that historically the inhabitants of the Kremlin have never tended to do subtle either externally or internally. When it comes to ‘Soviet / Russian intervention’ to suppress striking East German workers (in 1953), the crushing of the Hungarian revolution (in 1956), the invasion of Czechoslovakia to crush the Prague spring (in 1968), the invasion of Afghanistan (in 1979) and the invasions of Georgia (in 2008) and recent events in Ukraine most people would be hard pressed to describe them as subtle.  

The shadow of a gunman...

Orchestrated by the Kremlin Russian nationalist elements active in eastern Ukraine are busy throwing their weight around and the realities of President Putin rule in Russia are coming home to roost.  News filtering out from eastern Ukraine is beginning to suggest a pattern to disappearances as journalists, local politicians, and ordinary citizens have begun to go missing at an alarming rate. The Kyiv Post and the Committee to Protect Journalists have compiled lists of documented cases of kidnappings in the region.

We are where we are because of Russia’s long planned but hastily implemented occupation of the Crimea which followed the collapse of the corrupt oligarchic pro Moscow government in Kyiv in the face of a bloody but popular revolt. The US Secretary of State John Kerry has rightly accused Russia of "distraction, deception and destabilisation" in eastern Ukraine. In the strongly worded statement, he has called on Moscow to help defuse the crisis or face further sanctions.

The  continuing unrest of eastern Ukraine has more to do with deflecting public opinion in Russia away from the example of Kyiv than anything else. That said the unrest in Eastern Ukraine was stirred up after, from the Kremlin’s perspective, a pro western revolt succeeded. The key and as yet unresolved issue remains as to whether the Ukraine looks east to Moscow or west to the EU looms large in the Kremlin’s thinking.

Last month Russia annexed Ukraine's mainly ethnic-Russian Crimea following a questionable referendum in the region which ‘choose’ to that backed joining the Russian Federation. Both the West and Kiev have said that the referendum was illegal and have refused to recognise it. The problem is that the Kremlin’s concerns for ‘Russians in zones of legitimate interest’ posses potential problems for Moldova (including in the Trans Dniester region) and other eastern states with Russian minorities.

For a man originally brought in as a safe pair of hands to safeguard the interests of a clique of oligarchs who made their fortunes plundering the privatised assets of the former Soviet Union while ordinary Russians lost their savings, President Putin sits securely (and genuinely elected with a large popular mandate) in the Kremlin. The President’s popularity is higher than ever, state’s coffers are full of accrued energy revenues, former oligarchs have been tamed, the bear has roared, Russia has expanded territorially for the first time since 1945 and the West’s criticism has been dismissed.

To a great extent we are all still living with the consequences of the second world war and the cold war – parallels between President Putin and the dictators from the 1930’s and 1940’s have already been drawn.  The legacy and legacy of Stalin’s terror continues to overshadow modern Russia to the day. Communist tyranny died of apathy and inertia in the early 1990’s this meant that there were no real consequences for the former communists and the agencies of the communist state. 

There was no day in court to answer for terrible crimes and abuses inflicted on the Russian people. There was no equivalent of a post cold war Nuremberg tribunal to bring the former communist functionaries (including the KGB) to account for their crimes against the Russian people continue to haunt the Russian people and the rest of us. Unlike in much of Eastern Europe the former dissidents never inherited political power the former communist bureaucrats did.

The West preferred to work hand in hand with former communists to saddle Russia the inheritor of much of the former Soviet state with a dubious legacy of privatisations. Now while there are some in the West who are quite happy to admire President Putin’s values the problem with appeasement is not how it starts but how it ends. If the West accepts that eastern Ukraine President Putin’s final territorial demand then we will be on seriously unstable political ground for the foreseeable future.

Disturbingly the modern Russia’s ‘brown’ vote long targeted by President Putin appears to be the home to some extreme views long dispatched to the home of the extreme right wing.  The Crimean Tartars, who suffered deportation at the hands of Stalin and years of discrimination at the hands of the Soviet authorities, now find themselves back in Russia and like some other ethnic and religious minorities at risk.

When it comes to articulating the consequences and realities of appeasement these are the times when we seriously miss people like Michael Foot who would have stated in no uncertain terms exactly what Russia’s intervention in Ukraine actually signifies. That murmur of Munich that drifted through the West’s chancelleries in the 1990’s over Bosnia clearly has not gone away. 

A combination of increasing EU dependence on Russia gas supplies and potential loss of trading opportunities seriously threatens to put the skids under any EU diplomatic response to recent events in eastern Ukraine. If we in the West choose to do nothing , then what message does that send to Russian and Belarusian democrats and would be democratic movements across Eurasia and the rest of the world? 

FOLLOW THE MONEY...

Barely a few weeks ago, President  Viktor Yanukovych’s authoritarian government fell to a popular revolution and hundreds of ordinary Ukrainians swarmed into  the 140-hectare grounds of the luxurious Presidential estate. Here they caught a glimpse of the stunningly luxurious lifestyle that their former President had been enjoying at their expense. Shocked Ukrainians found evidence of an extraordinary self  indulgent (if somewhat tacky) opulence came with gold bathroom fittings, marble floors, a private zoo and a full size galleon (for parties) in the grounds.  

In the chaos that followed the revolution a small but dedicated group of journalists have been chasing down thousands of hastily dumped documents that were found in the presidential estates lake. The recovered documents contained proof (of the former Presidents extravagant tastes) and also documented the systematic bribery, corruption, nepotism and state sponsored violence that have scared the Ukraine in recent years.

The paper trail continues to grow, stretching across Kyiv, the Ukraine and elsewhere (including perhaps to the doors of many large European banks) as other incriminating papers keep turning up. These waterlogged documents may provide crucial evidence for potential future criminal proceedings. Investigative reporters have been working around the clock to dry and sort out the mountains of damp paperwork.

The relatively rapid collapse of the corrupt  oligarchic regime in Kyiv no doubt set alarm bells ringing in Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the other corrupt self serving oligarchies. Not so much for the loss of President Yanukovych and his ruling clique, but, because it provides an example of what is possible to people in Belarus, Russia and elsewhere when it comes to overthrowing their own oppressive and corrupt governments.

The revolution has triggered a no doubt long planned (but hastily enacted) series of events in the Crimea and delivered President Putin a convenient military and strategic success for Russia. The Kremlin sponsored events in Crimea (and now eastern Ukraine) have been augmented by a Russian media frenzy. This serves to distract the Russian people from making any potentially awkward comparisons between elite corruption in Ukraine and the systematic corruption that lies at the heart of President Putin’s Russia.

SLEEPLESS IN MINSK

Sleepless nights in Minsk?

The real message of the Ukrainian revolution (and Russia’s ongoing attempt to annex the Crimea) despite the best efforts of the Kremlin and some of the energy compromised Middle Europeans to muddy the waters, remains crystal clear. Putting aside the minutiae of Ukrainian politics recent events in Ukraine have been shown those Russians and Belarusians who are bitterly opposed to the corrupt self-serving oligarchies that run Ukraine’s near neighbours what is possible.  It would be nice to think that events in Kyiv have caused more than a few sleepless nights amongst the oligarchic political elite in both Moscow and Minsk. People in Kyiv united to remove Viktor Yanukovych, who contrary to the Kremlin’s spin, appears to have had been caught bang to rights with both hands well and truly in the till. The interesting thing is what can work in Kyiv (admittedly at a price) can work equally successfully in Moscow, Minsk or elsewhere, this is something that even a hastily activated (but perhaps long planned) crisis in the Crimea cannot hide.

After the revolution comes austerity?

The knowledge, that at some point in the future they may face the consequences for their actions (not to mention consequences for helping themselves to former state assets) may lead to hopefully more than a few sleepless nights. The problem for Ukraine, despite the revolution and the Russian occupation of the Crimea may only just be beginning. Now the immediate Crimean crisis is grim enough, but faced by an end to relatively easy credit, cheap energy supplies (at least on Russian terms)  and the consequences of having the state coffers plundered by Yanukovych (and his supporters) there is now a serious fiscal crisis. The EU, the USA and the World Bank have offered to help out financially, but, this help will come with a hefty price tag. The austerity (and reconstruction) package will bring in some eye watering cuts to pensions, government services and subsidized fuel prices, etc. Beyond the immediate eye watering ouch, the austerity package is something that could doom any future democratically elected Ukrainian government at future elections. 

UNFINISHED BUSINESS…

Revolutionary times in Kyiv

The flight of President Viktor Yanukovych (and his government) from Kyiv may bring some momentary satisfaction in many quarters, the resultant power vacuum will, I have no doubt, be rapidly filled by a new Ukrainian government.  These developments may not however bring an end to Ukraine’s crisis as there is a great deal of unfinished business. 

The emergence of the Ukraine and Russia as independent states back in August 1991 was the decisive factor in bringing about the collapse of the much despised former Soviet Union. In Ukraine the demise of the USSR saw the start of a period of political and economic instability which saw politics and big business become deeply entwined and the emergence of supper rich oligarchs (something that also took place in Yeltsin’s Russia). The former dissidents, democrats and the Ukrainian people lost out. Ukraine today has a significant number of mega rich MP’s who have significant business interests (not to mention control of large sections of the country’s media) who have close links with the much hated oligarchs.

Recent and bloody developments in the Maidan (Kyiv’s main square) may have swung the political balance away from the increasingly autocratic pro Russian party that surrounded the possibly soon to be former President Yanukovych. Even as President Yanukovych revealed the terms of the peace deal (signed on Friday) the rats (so to speak) had been jumping ship, unhappy at the prospect of facing some potential consequences for their actions. 

Yanukovych stalwarts were spotted fleeing to Kyiv's Zhulyany airport, where aircraft records indicate that as many as 180 charter flights have been registered since February 19th. On Friday 21st February, a roll call at the parliament session on February 21st revealed that only 131 of the President’s Party of Regions' 204 deputies were in attendance. A flight log, published online, revealed flights to international destinations as well as locations in Ukraine's Russian-speaking south and east. The destinations include Moscow, Frankfurt, Budapest, Istanbul, Kharkhiv, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Simferopol.

Unfinished business

The recent debacle over the EU deal may turn out to have been the final straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back. The reality is that other more pressing issues like institutionalised corruption, in the courts, the police and state organs, problems with the banking system, secure land tenure and difficulties many ordinary encountered while trying to make al living, run a small business or simply to get through the winter have been feeding growing discontent for years.

All of this, along with two partially successful revolutions and some very public violations of people’s human rights has contributed to this revolution along with unfinished business dating back to the country's Orange Revolution in 2004-05. What happens next may depend on where President Yanukovych has gone and whether or not he plays the Russian card and if that happens much will depend on how the EU and the West reacts. Ukraine needs to be free and the Ukrainian people themselves need to make those decisions not outsiders.

GOODBYE LENIN

Whether the Ukraine aligns itself with the European Union or with Moscow is of some importance,  far beyond the long overdue removal of old Soviet street art, it will define the relationship between the EU and Russia for the foreseeable future. Other former Soviet republics who have been sitting on the fence will be watching events in Kyiv with veiled interest to see what happens and to see how Russia reacts. Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv seeking the resignation of the government for refusing a deal on closer ties with the European Union. The demonstrators protested initially about President Yanukovych's decision last month to suspend work on an association and free-trade accord with the EU. President Yanukovych defended that decision by saying the accord with the EU would damage close trade ties with Russia. 

The protesters, who oppose a customs union with Russia, toppled a statue of Lenin and smashed it with hammers. This action followed a massive pro-EU demonstration on Independence Square on December 8^th that attracted hundreds of thousands of people angered by Yanukovych's recent snub of the European Union in favour of improved ties with Moscow. However, the protesters are now calling for new parliamentary and presidential elections since the violent police crackdown against demonstrators on November 30^th left dozens injured. The anger over the decision by Ukraine's political leadership to pull out of an EU Association Agreement has resulted in some of the largest public demonstrations since the country's Orange Revolution in 2004-05, which were sparked by a rigged presidential election won by Yanukovych.