DYING TO VOTE

Yesterday (Tuesday), the 1st of April 2014, was the last day for Afghans to register to vote for the Friday 5th April presidential and provincial elections. Millions of Afghans have stood in long lines and defied the threat of attacks from militants to obtain their voter cards. A significant number of those Afghans who rushed to register to vote in this year’s elections have been women.

Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission, has reported that around 3.8 million new voters have been registered for the 5th April elections. More than one-third of these new voters are women. That's a significant number in a deeply conservative country like Afghanistan, where women continue to face considerable obstacles in exercising their basic rights.

Many Afghan women are understandably concerned about the prospect of losing some of the real and hard-won gains that have been secured over the last 10 years. Something that may well occur once the majority of foreign combat troops leave at the end of this year. Already, a noticeable drawback has been noted when it comes to women's rights even before the foreign troops leave. Female lawmakers have been unsuccessful in their attempts to outlaw violence against women.

Conservative male lawmakers have looked to reintroduce stoning as the punishment for adultery, not to mention a law that prevents victims of violence and abuse from testifying against husbands and other relatives. At the same time, the number of seats reserved for women in provincial councils has been reduced, prompting criticism from local and international rights groups.

That said, for this set of elections, for the moment at least is different, a number of the presidential candidates have highlighted the importance of female voters in this election, with three of them choosing women as their second vice-presidential running mates. One of most high-profile woman among the presidential tickets is Habiba Sarabi, the second vice-presidential running mate for Zalmai Rasul, a former foreign minister who is one of the favourites to become the country's next president.

If the Rasul Presidential tickect wins the poll, then Sarabi would become Afghanistan's first female vice presidents. Sarabi, a 57-year-old pharmacist, has already made history by becoming Afghanistan’s first female provincial governor back in 2005. In a bid to encourage women to vote, Sarabi has attended many of Rasul's election rallies, telling women to seize their opportunity to determine their country's future direction.

At the same time, Rula, the wife of candidate Ashraf Ghani, has campaigned beside her husband. Rula, a Lebanese Christian, she has attended numerous meetings and rallies, previously an extremely rare occurrences in a country where the current first lady almost never appears in public. When compared to previous elections, thousands of Afghan women and girls have attended election rallies, participated in candidates' conventions, or worked as campaigners in# the 2014 vote.

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TRAGEDY AND FARCE

When it comes to the Afghan tragedy, a few quotes spring to mind, Karl Marx said "Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce." Winston Churchill said, "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it" and “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.” When it comes to Afghanistan there is more than enough history to provide enough examples of what to do and what to avoid.

A scene from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan

The long and bloody history of Afghanistan is littered literally with the would-be invaders who came to grief and eventually through in the towel and admitted defeat. This week, almost unnoticed an anniversary passed, Wednesday 15th May was the twenty-fifth anniversary of the start of the then Soviet Union’s nine month long withdrawal from Afghanistan. Around 100,000 Soviet troops had left the war torn country by February 15, 1989. This was the conclusion to ten years of brutal warfare which had killed over 14,000 Soviet soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Afghan combatants and civilians.

Learning the lesson of history?

NATO forces have been on the ground in Afghanistan since the 7th October 2001, and preparations for NATO’s withdrawal (to be completed by 2014) are proceeding apace. Unlike their Soviet predecessors who treated much of Afghanistan as free fire zone, NATO forces have been relatively restrained when it comes to using their firepower. Despite this many people have argued that just like their Soviet predecessors NATO troops in Afghanistan now find themselves engaged in waging a campaign which is "unwinnable in military terms".

‘Lessons from Afghanistan’s History for the Current Transition and Beyond’ is a thought provoking paper produced by the MOD Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre makes interesting reading.  The paper has noted that between 1933 to 1973, Afghanistan was stable and reasonably effectively governed, however, that stability was firmly anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and the Afghan state such as it was a weak centralized though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978.

Afghanistan history’s is littered with a series of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the next presidential election, if successful, would be the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. The paper also notes that any expectations about the pace of any progress and reform should be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions need to be recognized.

‘A new approach to understanding Afghanistan’s transition’ has been produced by the United States Institute for Peace also makes interesting reading. This paper by way of comparison with other countries who have passed though conflict, significant military intervention and  a post conflict period of transition looks at Afghanistan and its preparedness for life after NATO. Amongst the key issues that this report flags up is the issue of foreign aid and its impact on Afghanistan.

Another military withdrawal from Afghanistan 

Of late there has been a relative flood of papers from a whole range of military and civilian institutes studying and analysing what has happen and what may happen in Afghanistan as NATO prepares to leave. While our soldiers and their families and many Afghans may carry the physical and mental scars for decades, the politicians (at least in the West) will probably do their best to air brush Afghanistan and the consequences of NATO’s intervention out of site and out of mind.

As someone who has had relatives who have served a number of tours in Afghanistan and have come back in one piece I will (no doubt along with more than a few other people) be more than grateful when the last NATO soldier hops on the last plane and comes home. Following NATO’S withdrawal I have little doubt that what will follow will be a public redefinition of ‘success’ at least as it is applied to Afghanistan. Quite where that leaves the Afghans and Afghan women's rights whatever future they face with a still active Taliban, rampant corruption and a curtailing of foreign aid remains to be seen, but nowhere good I suspect.

HONOUR SATISFIED?

Yesterday, Newport West Labour MP Paul Flynn was somewhat predictably suspended from the House of Commons after claiming that Defence Secretary Philip Hammond was lying to Parliament over the conflict in Afghanistan. He refused a request by the Speaker (John Bercow) to withdraw the accusation, was duly accused of "disorderly" behaviour, and was suspended from the chamber for the rest of Tuesday.

Equally predictably the Defence Secretary said that the comments were scandalous. Mr Flynn’s attack came during questions on NATO strategy in Afghanistan, as Mr Hammond denied suggestions that coalition military operation was being scaled down after a series of fatal (“Green on Blue”) attacks on international forces by Afghan troops they were training to take over security operations before the NATO withdrawal in 2014.

Predictable histrionics aside, Mr Flynn raises a valid point. You can put as much spin on it as you like, but it is difficult to put a positive spin on the fact that the US has suspended the training for new recruits to the Afghan local police while security checks are carried out on investigating any possible ties to the Taliban. This decision follows a number of incidents in which foreign troops have been killed by Afghan soldiers or policemen they have been training or working with.

As the 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of coalition forces in Afghanistan comes ever closer, the number of Taliban attacks looks to be increasing. The Labour MP for Newport West and a consistent opponent of the conflict, who was interviewed on BBC Radio Wales, noted that Dutch and Canadian troops had been withdrawn from combat and the UK should do the same.

The BBC liberates Kabul

It seems a very long time since the Taliban were routed from Kabul (and most of Afghanistan) following NATO's successful invasion of Afghanistan (back in 2001); the relative ease of victory turned out decidedly deceptive. If anyone had told us almost eleven years ago that some of our service personnel (including some of my relatives) would be effectively commuting back and for to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban insurgency many people may well have doubted their sanity.

The US and NATO seriously took their eyes of the ball by invading Iraq, Afghanistan was forgotten. Serious efforts to build up the Afghan army did not really start until 2009 by which time the security situation in Iraq was pretty grim. Prior to the renewed Taliban insurgency NATO's intended to create a small Afghan force to deal with internal disorder of a domestic variety rather than a full scale insurgency.

The new Afghan army should have provided the Afghan people with a visible sign of unity after several decades of brutal conflict and civil war. NATO’s training mission only began in earnest almost three years ago, at that point the Afghan army's desertion rate was around 85 percent. Things improved as from January to June (2011), NATO figures, showed that around 24,000 soldiers, some 14 percent of the 170,000-man force, deserted.

Once NATO departs, few impartial observers, doubt that after the Taliban and their militant allies will stream back into Afghanistan from their sanctuaries in neighbouring Pakistan no doubt refreshed, rearmed and refunded by the Pakistan military. By 2014 if Afghanistan's standing army is not unready and the Afghan government is not able to support it then some thirteen years of war, thousands of lives, and billions of dollars will have been squandered for nothing and the country will fall will some pretty grim consequences, even by Afghan standards, especially for Afghan women.

Another significant problem to be dealt with by 2014 is that the Afghan government, which is estimated to be probably the most corrupt government on earth. The levels of corruption show few signs of abating, with documented cases of Doctors working in government hospitals leaving wounded Afghan soldiers to expire in their hospital beds if bribes are not paid. For ordinary Afghans the medical infrastructure in the country could be best described as fragile.

Vast amounts of aid has been poured in Afghanistan in recent years, yet the Afghan government does not have a transparent, workable budget, at least not in the normal sense. For 2011 the Afghan budget was nominally $14.3 billion dollars over 90% of which comes from foreign aid, if past years are anything to go by much of it will be stolen way before it gets a chance of being spent on any intended purposes.

History repeated 1975? or 2015?

Once Afghanistan is out of sight and out of mind (just like Iraq) will the money keep flowing in? Or will the West make the same mistake is made in the late 1980s and drop any interest in the country? The last time that happened the Afghan people were abandoned following their defeat of the collapsing Soviet Union, they paid the butchers bill in spades.

After the civil war the Taliban swept into power...they appeared reasonable in comparison with the warlords (who are currently NATO’s gallant allies) and we should all be painfully aware of what followed.

True Courage

There are many different ways for people to show courage and fortitude against oppression – in modern Afghanistan one way if you are a woman is to stand up for your rights and to openly oppose those religious zealots who are rapidly extinguishing your personal freedoms and human rights.

In Afghanistan, this is a dangerous and brave thing to do, even more so if you are a woman especially when speaking out against the rising tide of prejudice and misogyny that is now depriving women of their rights, their dignity and fundamental freedoms even in the Afghan capital Kabul.

On Wednesday 15th April 2009 there was a demo by nearly two hundred Afghan women against a new law which imposes almost Taliban-like restrictions specifically on Shia women. Yesterday carrying banners calling for “dignity in the law” and insisting that “Islam is justice”, they marched past a University, where a leading cleric has strongly backed the new law, which sits next to Kabul's largest Shia mosque.

For their troubles the women were then subject to verbal abuse, they were stoned, they were spat upon and they were jostled. An angry male mob of men encouraged by clerics then snatched their banners, screamed abuse, tried to break through the police line and denounced the women as apostates and Christians.

Just for the record, President Karzai only last month signed this new “personal status” law signed by last month. The law is sectarian, in that it applies only to the Shia, who make up around 15 per cent of the population, it returns them to the same servile status that was imposed on all Afghan women by the Sunni Taliban during their five-year rule until 2001 – which was condemned by the then First Lady Laura Bush. Under this law, no woman is allowed to work, leave her house or receive education without permission from her husband. No wife can refuse her husband sex, which, the law states; he may demand every fourth day. This law is a charter for domestic slavery, child marriage and marital rape.

So far US President Obama has called the law abhorrent and around the world Human rights bodies have condemned the law saying that it violates a number of international agreements on the dignity of women. Under pressure from his Western masters President Karzai has now hastily ordered a review of the law after the an initial outcry, yet there appears to be no sign that he will resist the religious extremists or defend the relatively limited freedoms that women have enjoyed since the overthrow of the Taliban.

What seems to be standard behaviour is for the Clerics to trundle out a standard denunciation of these freedoms as a plot against Islam by Christians and the attempt to portray institutional misogyny as the heritage of patriotic Afghans.

In modern Afghanistan the basic statistics make grim reading and show how bad the situation is:
· 87 per cent of Afghan women are illiterate.
· 30 per cent of girls have access to education.
· 5% of girls attend secondary school
· One in three women experiences psychological, physical, or sexual violence.
· 57% of Afghan brides are under 16
· Every 30 minutes an Afghan woman dies during childbirth.
· Between 70 and 80 per cent of women face forced marriages.
· A woman in Afghanistan’s average life expectancy is 44 years.

Since 2001 there has been some progress, in 2008:

· 27 per cent of Afghan MPs were women,
· 43 per cent of voters were women in 2005,
· 100,000 women have benefited from micro-finance loans to set up businesses
· 75 per cent of Afghan women said (in 2008) that they were now better off than when they had been living under Taliban rule.

It now appears that the relatively limited opportunities that were available to women post 2001 are now being rapidly reduced with fewer women daring to go out and work, with the better educated women leaving and ongoing intimidation taking a mounting grim toll. Only this week it has been widely reported that the Taliban publicly executed a young couple who had eloped and were handed over by their parents.

Just in case you thought that this sort of thing is confined to Afghanistan, across the border in Pakistan (yet another potential failed state in this troubled region), the religious zealots are on the rise, in the Swat Valley the Pakistani Taliban are busy driving women indoors and attacking and closing down girls' schools.