THE INDIRECT CONNECTION

We modern humans have always lived in pretty well connected world, so if you think that there is no direct or even indirect connection between a public meeting about the plan to build a gas fired power station in Wrecsam and the suppression of a teacher union in Bahrain, then think again. The plan to build an £800 million pound gas-fired power station in Wrecsam, which Wrexham Power have said could create up to 1,200 construction jobs and 50 permanent posts on the proposed site at Wrecsam Industrial Estate, has led to the creation of an action group Wrecsam Residents Against Power Scheme (Wraps) whose concerned members have "many reservations" about the proposals for the gas fired power station.

The plan to construct (yet) another gas fired power station (in Wales) adding to ones constructed earlier in Pembrokeshire and in Newport (Gwent) is part of yet another Conservative inspired ‘dash to gas’. Whether the thrown bone of jobs is enough of a distracter to allow to project to go through on the nod is a matter of conjecture. If nothing else the Con Dem Westminster Government is running greater risks by increasing the UK’s dependency upon imported gas from the chronically unstable Persian Gulf and Russia.

Successive Westminster Governments should have been working consistently to ensure our energy independence. Instead they have presided over our increasing dependence on imported energy supplies and left energy planning to the privatised energy companies who are only interested in generating more profits.  Much of the gas for the new generation of gas fired power stations comes from the Persian gulf and despite Mr Cameron’s best efforts to sell the Gulf elites more rubber and real bullets than they can use in a month of Sundays the region remains chronically unstable.

Bahrain has a reputation as being quite the repressive regime having cracked down on protests for democracy in 2011. Amongst those arrested in the crackdown were members of the Bahrain Teachers Association. Amnesty International has repeatedly called for the release of the jailed president of the Bahrain Teachers Association, Mahdi Abu Dheeb. He was convicted by a military court of plotting to overthrow the government during unrest that swept Bahrain in 2011, receiving a 10 year sentence, reduced to five on appeal.

Mr Abu Dheeb and his vice-president Jalila al-Salman have made allegations that they were tortured in detention after calling for a strike by teachers in March 2011 to support pro-democracy activists who had occupied the Pearl Roundabout, in Manama (the capital city). The Bahrain Teachers Association was subsequently dissolved by the government after its leaders were arrested. Ms Salman was originally sentenced to three years in jail but that was reduced to six months on appeal. In March this year she was sacked from her teaching job after criticising Bahrain's human rights record at a conference in Washington DC.  All these people did was call a strike as trade union leaders.

This is where energy policy, political repression and Human Rights all meet up. On a very basic level, to have an energy strategy that is to all intents and purposes dependent on imported gas from a politically unstable region is questionable to say the least. Surely if nothing else the events of the Arab spring should have taught the West one thing at least, in that at some point even the most heavily tooled up repressive regime can fall if enough people are willing to challenge it. At which point when the lights begin to flicker where exactly will we be left standing?

SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TRAGEDY AND FARCE

When it comes to the Afghan tragedy, a few quotes spring to mind, Karl Marx said "Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce." Winston Churchill said, "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it" and “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.” When it comes to Afghanistan there is more than enough history to provide enough examples of what to do and what to avoid.

A scene from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan

The long and bloody history of Afghanistan is littered literally with the would-be invaders who came to grief and eventually through in the towel and admitted defeat. This week, almost unnoticed an anniversary passed, Wednesday 15th May was the twenty-fifth anniversary of the start of the then Soviet Union’s nine month long withdrawal from Afghanistan. Around 100,000 Soviet troops had left the war torn country by February 15, 1989. This was the conclusion to ten years of brutal warfare which had killed over 14,000 Soviet soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Afghan combatants and civilians.

Learning the lesson of history?

NATO forces have been on the ground in Afghanistan since the 7th October 2001, and preparations for NATO’s withdrawal (to be completed by 2014) are proceeding apace. Unlike their Soviet predecessors who treated much of Afghanistan as free fire zone, NATO forces have been relatively restrained when it comes to using their firepower. Despite this many people have argued that just like their Soviet predecessors NATO troops in Afghanistan now find themselves engaged in waging a campaign which is "unwinnable in military terms".

‘Lessons from Afghanistan’s History for the Current Transition and Beyond’ is a thought provoking paper produced by the MOD Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre makes interesting reading.  The paper has noted that between 1933 to 1973, Afghanistan was stable and reasonably effectively governed, however, that stability was firmly anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and the Afghan state such as it was a weak centralized though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978.

Afghanistan history’s is littered with a series of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the next presidential election, if successful, would be the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. The paper also notes that any expectations about the pace of any progress and reform should be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions need to be recognized.

‘A new approach to understanding Afghanistan’s transition’ has been produced by the United States Institute for Peace also makes interesting reading. This paper by way of comparison with other countries who have passed though conflict, significant military intervention and  a post conflict period of transition looks at Afghanistan and its preparedness for life after NATO. Amongst the key issues that this report flags up is the issue of foreign aid and its impact on Afghanistan.

Another military withdrawal from Afghanistan 

Of late there has been a relative flood of papers from a whole range of military and civilian institutes studying and analysing what has happen and what may happen in Afghanistan as NATO prepares to leave. While our soldiers and their families and many Afghans may carry the physical and mental scars for decades, the politicians (at least in the West) will probably do their best to air brush Afghanistan and the consequences of NATO’s intervention out of site and out of mind.

As someone who has had relatives who have served a number of tours in Afghanistan and have come back in one piece I will (no doubt along with more than a few other people) be more than grateful when the last NATO soldier hops on the last plane and comes home. Following NATO’S withdrawal I have little doubt that what will follow will be a public redefinition of ‘success’ at least as it is applied to Afghanistan. Quite where that leaves the Afghans and Afghan women's rights whatever future they face with a still active Taliban, rampant corruption and a curtailing of foreign aid remains to be seen, but nowhere good I suspect.

DEALING WITH A DEPENDENCY CULTURE

Well before the last National Assembly elections I came to the conclusion that the Labour in Wales Government in Cardiff was merely going through the motions when it comes to the government of our country. Rather than changing Wales for the better or even trying to plan for a prosperous and sustainable future it’s a case of sitting back and waiting for Labour in Westminster (London) to fix all our problems with periodic public spats with a convenient Con Dem government in London over issues that even a Westminster Labour Government would never devolve in a month of Sundays e.g. the Severn Bridge Tolls, etc.  

This if nothing else this shows the intellectual dependency on Westminster and London that runs through the heart of Labour in Wales at every level in every part of our country where Labour is in office.  At a very basic level, certainly locally in Newport (and no doubt elsewhere across our country) it appears to be literally about being there rather than doing anything in particular, that and enjoying as many of the trimmings as possible.

This is the real dependency culture that lies at the heart of the current Labour in Wales’s government in Cardiff; it revolves around the fantasy of waiting for Westminster to come to our rescue. When the next Labour in Westminster government will make it all better, banishing the nasty Tories and their cuts, etc, etc. This a fantasy, when the last Labour Government was in office well before the financial crash when the coffers were full and there was (in theory) no lack of political will; little was done to balance out the economic imbalance that lies at the heart of modern Union.  

Take energy, things are different in Scotland, as I have said before Wales is not Scotland; and what works in Scotland won’t necessarily work here. When it comes to energy generation, energy planning and growing jobs then Wales just like Scotland should be in a position to benefit from its rich natural resources. There are certainly more than enough Scottish examples to show that a whole range of entirely practical steps have been taken to generate sustainable alternative energy and jobs.

One particularly good example of the practical and the possible is the new hydro power scheme in Ross-shire which has just been given planning approval, ironically on the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the hydro power industry in Scotland. The £3 0 million pound scheme near Ardross will supply power to 4,000 homes and SSE will begin construction on the 7.5 megawatt (MW) Glasa scheme later on this year.

First Minister, Alex Salmond said: "Hydro-electric and its role in producing energy is one of the greatest industrial success stories of post-war Scotland. Hydro drove not only industrial development but also immense social achievement - something which still rings true today as the Scottish government continues to grow delivery of clean energy through renewables schemes for the 21st Century and also by retaining support for new conventional hydro schemes."

This year Scotland is celebrating the 70^th anniversary of the legislation which began the Highland hydro development boom. A 1943 parliamentary act kick-started the ‘Power from the Glens’ campaign; it brought large-scale hydro power to Scotland's lochs and rivers. After the Hydro Electric Development (Scotland) Act was passed in 1943, work started on the construction of dozens of dams and power stations.

At its peak, the workforce numbered about 12,000 men. After the Second World War, men from all over Scotland came to work on the schemes, attracted by high wages. The Glasa development will be the biggest since the Queen opened the Glendoe pump storage tunnel near Loch Ness some four years ago. Hydro electric power is an important source of energy in Scotland, where there is now some 1.5 gigawatts of capacity, or enough to supply energy to more than 900,000 homes.

A recent report has suggested that the renewable energy industry could create more than 10,000 jobs on Scotland's islands by 2030, according to a government-commissioned study. Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles would benefit from wind, wave and tidal schemes, the Scottish Islands Renewable Project final report stated. The research commissioned by the UK and Scottish governments, also highlighted the necessity of ensuring that those areas were power could be generated were connected to those areas where there was a demand for the power.

The generation of renewable energy could bring "significant benefits" to local economies through direct and indirect jobs. The report estimated that by 2020, 392 full-time jobs could be created on the Western Isles, 463 in Shetland, 416 in Orkney and 3,000 across the rest of the UK. The report suggested that by 2030 the job numbers on the islands could increase to more than 3,500 on the Western Isles, almost 2,900 in Shetland, and more than 4,500 on Orkney.

Other potential benefits of developing the renewable energy industry on Scotland's islands were also highlighted, including that the project could reduce fuel poverty and halting a declining population. Over the last 100 years the isles' population had fallen by 43% to 26,100 in 2011. The isles, researchers noted had a lower gross weekly pay compared with the rest of the UK.

Our country is rich in natural resources, some of which could be used to generate sustainable green energy and energy schemes that will deliver real benefits to our communities. While we do have some serious hydro electric projects in Wales, and not just large scale ones just like they do in Scotland, the real difference is one of scale, history and the political will.

In Wales we are in a difficult situation as while we have some of the powers necessary to create and develop sustainable green energy, what we appear to lack, at least within the current Labour in Wales government is the political will to actually do anything. We need to avoid the grim combination of Con Dem Westminster Government’s indifference (if not hostility) towards green energy and the Labour in Wales Government’s readily apparent lethargy towards smaller scale community beneficial green energy schemes. 

THE CASE FOR FORWARD THINKING?

I welcome the news that funding has been secured for new railway station at Pye Corner, on the line between Cardiff and Ebbw Vale after the UK government awarded the scheme some £ 2.5 million pounds. The new station which will include a a single platform and a car park with 70 spaces should be up and running by the end of 2014, in time for the Ebbw Vale line's planned electrification. This follows last week’s announcement that £ 11.5 million pounds worth of funding has been earmarked for the new Ebbw Vale Town rail station. The Ebbw Vale Town station will also be a single platform at the Works, on the redeveloped steelworks site. The Ebbw Vale line has been re-opened since 2008 and is among the south Wales valleys and commuter lines to be electrified sometime between 2014 and 2019 as part of a £350m investment.

A simple question - single track?

Putting to one side the as yet restored rail link into Newport (not to mention the need for new stations at Caerleon, Llanwern and Magor) for the moment, this is good, if belated news. I continue to question the decision to build single platform railway stations (save where the track is doubled from Crosskeys to Risca). This decision has and continues to directly impact on the frequency of the rail services that can be run, without double platforms and passing loops at all of the station on the line, we are talking about a relatively reduced up and down rail service.  If I was being generous I might suggest that it might be case of Network Rail and the Labour in Wales Government in Cardiff bay thinking along the lines of ‘Give them that [limited service], they will be grateful as something is better than nothing’.

Or double track?

At some point I have little doubt that we (the tax payers) will have to fork out the cash to build double platforms and passing loops along the length of the Ebbw Vale line if only to upgrade the infrastructure and ensure a far more regular service. I find this basic lack of common sense and even basic foresight quite disturbing, if would have been far more sensible to restore the whole line to double track working from the start. That said, the new stations at Pye Corner and in Ebbw Vale are a gain, but, why not build them with double platforms  - it will save us all time and money later.

HOW BIG A 'NO' DO YOU WANT?

The Sainsbury’s Local supermarket in the village of Caerleon at the site of the Angel Hotel on Goldcroft Common will open before Christmas, and according to the developer will create up to 25 jobs. The demolition of the Angel Hotel is proceeding and construction work is due to begin shortly on the new supermarket, which will have  a footfall of some 385 square metres (with ten parking spaces to the rear).

A work in progress - the site of the Angel

Just after the City Council elections in May last year, the new Labour dominated quietly approved a request from council planning officials to recommend that Sainsbury’s plan to convert the Angel Hotel in Caerleon into a convenience store be approved. The proposals which had been put forward by Hillvale Properties who operated on behalf of Sainsbury’s prompted over 1,700 people to sign petitions against it, and 127 neighbours to write letters of objection.  

Local people told the council that the plan to turn the pub, located on Goldcroft Common, Caerleon, into a 385 square metre retailer with two flats on the first floor would “exacerbate an already dangerous and difficult traffic situation”. Concerns were raised that local shops – several independent retailers including a sandwich shop and a Spar are nearby – would close, while the petition said the historical character and sense of community in Caerleon would be tarnished.

There are also concerns about anti-social behaviour, noise to residents, and parking which is claimed is already at saturation point in the area. As someone who periodically travels on the bus to and from work past the Angel, parking can at times be grim in and around the area of the Angel and traffic congestion is a real  issue.

For reasons beholden unto themselves City planners noted that a new store opening would “enhance” the Caerleon district centre, add to its “retail floorspace” and suggested that the store was unlikely to harm the village centre’s viability. The planners duly noted that the Spar and Pipers News shops may lose trade, but “it is not the role of the planning system to restrict competition”.  This may well be a fair point but what about any real investigation into the economic impact of the development on the village?

The planner had also noted that traffic concerns were “understandable”, but had added “there is no robust evidence” that the proposal would result in “a significant and harmful increase in traffic.” Spaces for seven customer cars during deliveries would meet parking requirements, and Gwent Police had raised no objection to the proposal. The planners had also called for conditions imposing restricted delivery hours.

The recommendation was to proceed with the application, despite any local objections. One question that should be loudly asked is just who is the planning system serving, clearly not the expressed wishes of the residents of Caerleon. I have no doubt that if the City Councillors vote down the proposed development that they will be told that the developer will appeal and keep appealing until they get the result they want and that this will cost a small fortune.

Now, none of this is new, the larger food retailers are systematically targeting the small shopping areas across Wales and the rest of the UK as they aggressively seek every greater profits and a larger market share. If this development goes a head the medium to long term impact on Caerleon will be a loss of trade, jobs and customer choice.  This is not the first time that this has happened in Newport, and it will not be the last.

Back in June 2011  Tesco won their appeal against an initial decision to turn down planning permission for a new store.  Over 500 people had objected to Tesco plans to open an Express store in a dis-used pub, the Black Horse Inn on Somerton Road. The Council planning officers had on that occasion recommended that the application be refused over concerns about congestion and road safety issues and a lack of parking provision.

Local residents also objected on grounds of the impact of the development on existing shops. The Council's planning committee considered the application on 1st April 2009 and rejected the plans. The then planning committee recommended refusal on three grounds - that it would be detrimental to the vitality and viability of nearby retail centres; insufficient parking; substandard access.

The Planning Inspectorate however allowed Tesco to appeal to convert the former Black Horse Inn pub on Somerton Road into an Express store. The Tesco PR machine no doubt rolled out the usual claptrap about creating jobs and boosting the local economy , here should have been little doubt that the planned new Tesco Express store in Somerton, is part of an aggressive business strategy expressly targeting local shops and small businesses in local shopping areas, with a view to taking their trade. This is part of a recognised problem which is taking place across Wales and which does not just relate to Tesco but most of the other larger UK wide retail chains.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has long noted that the UK loses approximately 2,000 local shops every year and should this continue then by 2015 there will be no independent retailers left in business, something that effects consumers and communities as they effectively lose any real choice in the marketplace. Over recent years across all of Wales, that particularly useful mix of local shops, small businesses and local suppliers have come under increasing pressure as the usual suspects in the shape of “identikit” chain stores have replicated themselves across our towns.

Our planning process has been fundamentally weakened and effectively undermined, as local authorities fear the cost implications of supermarket applications being taken to appeal after appeal if the original outline planning permission is refused. We are proceeding down a slippery slope, when Councillors end up being advised by their officers to grant planning permission less the potential costs of refusing a development proposal from a large company prove to damaging - so much for local democracy!

A WIN WIN FOR WALES

There is much to commend Plaid Cymru’s Plan C which concisely and clearly identifies the linked nature of economic renewal and economic recovery necessary to get our country back on its feet economically.  Simply relying on the failed models of economic development and redevelopment to get our country out of the economic hole that we are in just won’t work. We need to change Wales and break the link with the economic consequences of the financial crisis which was largely caused by the banking sector.

What Plan C offers is realistic achievable alternative to the years of economic stagnation and austerity which are all that’s being offered by the Westminster based political parties. One way that the Welsh government can make a real and lasting economic difference is by maximising the economic opportunities offered to  Welsh businesses via its procurement policy.

A ‘buy local’ campaign is a real economic must, this will necessitate legislation to improve public procurement, something that can provide real opportunities for Welsh based business within the procurement chain – potentially this could create some 50,000 new jobs. Significantly improved local procurement policy can create and secure jobs, boost employment levels and help small to medium sized enterprises in many of our communities.

At a very basic level it comes down to maximising the local economic opportunities from the £ 4.3 billion pound public sector spend in Wales – which is used to procure and purchase goods and services.  There have been some real improvements when it comes to public procurement over the last ten years, but, there is still room for substantial improvements to be made.  The increase in Welsh procurement of goods and services from 34% in 2003 to 52%  (June 2012) something that follows extensive efforts by Plaid Cymru as part of the One Wales government (between 2007 and 2011).

If we are going to spend public money then we need to work it hard and maximise the economic impact every penny and every pound and to make sure that it works to help the Welsh economy. At present for every £2 spent procuring goods and services, £1 of that immediately ‘leaks’ out of Wales.  Value Wales has suggested that for each 1% increase in goods or services procured from Wales, around 2,000 jobs are created.

So if we can achieve a local public spend of something close to 75% then potentially some 46,000 additional jobs can be created. The impact of a well thought out and implemented public procurement policy is something that could economically give and give again. This is the crux of the matter, it could be a real win win situation for Wales, potentially cutting unemployment by around a third or about the same number as the increase in unemployment that we have suffered since the recession began.

Before people kick off and say that the setting targets is ruled out by European Union regulations, there is a enough freedom of action to significantly increase procurement from firms (based in our country) to 75% within the existing rules. There are more than enough examples of this from elsewhere in Europe where in Germany and France some 98% of the value of public contracts are won by companies within their borders.

The 2012 McClelland review shows what can be accomplished with good examples of best practice.  The review recommended legislation to ensure that public bodies involved in the public procurement process are required to appoint specialist procurement officers, and that Welsh Government guidelines are followed.

We have some excellent examples of public procurement including the Arbed scheme to improving housing energy efficiency where 41 of the 51 companies involved in the scheme (80%) were based in Wales. Other good examples are the Church Village and Porthmadog bypass contracts which were agreed when Ieuan Wyn Jones was Economy and Transport Minister where local training clauses were used to good effect.

Local procurement and business opportunities can be boosted encouraging contracts that are ‘small’ and ‘unbundled’ as well as maximising opportunities for consortia of small local firms to bid for larger contracts. Better thought out public procurement contracts can include public benefit clauses which can boost the chances of local firms winning bids and contracts rather than ending up automatically rejected or excluded from participating in the procurement process.

There is no reason why commitments to local training, carbon footprint reduction and the use of the Welsh language cannot be built into public procurement contracts where they are appropriate. There could be a knock on effect from all of this aside from local economic gains as the investment in skills and companies will provide spin-offs across the country delivering improved employment rates. More jobs and more secure jobs will boost wages as business success grows there will be more opportunities for better training and improved business practices.

BORIS, TAX AND SPEND

Boris Johnson the London Mayor has called for devolved taxation for London, a first step to borrowing powers no doubt. The Westminster Government, the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly are able to borrow to invest funds in large infrastructure projects. Yet, we in Wales have no borrowing powers despite having law making powers, a situation that is both untenable and unjust in my opinion. The failure to include anything about borrowing powers in the pending Wales Bill, is a real  lost opportunity and perpetuates the constitutional status quo. 

In the modern world, despite the banking crisis, whether we like it or not governments borrow, the real argument should not be over borrowing powers, rather about what infrastructure schemes that our government in Cardiff wants to invest in and whether they deliver value for money. A variety of  dubious expensive infrastructure projects have been touted from time to time as providing the justification for having borrowing powers including the exceptionally poor value for money and environmentally destructive M4 Relief road.

The hair brained M4 relief road across the Gwent levels would come in at around £1 billion pounds plus and would provide few realistic medium, let alone long term benefits, as it is a short term solution. Amongst the reasons why the option of the M4 relief road (South of Newport) was dropped relatively recently a few years ago; aside for the financial cost (around £1 billion pounds) and environmental impact was the key issue of the funding model. Ministers were advised that not only would the new relief road to be subjected to tolls, but so would the existing M4 would also be tolled. 

Interestingly enough the only other toll road in the UK is the M6 in the Midlands which has seen toll prices increase by 175% since it was opened. Another reason why this option was dropped was because of evidence gained from the operation of the M6 toll road - which had never made any money because motorists can avoid it by using nearby non tolled motorways.  That M6 tolled Motorway has seen the number of users drop and it has done nothing to reduce congestion.

It is simply unacceptable for motorists to end up paying tolls on the Severn bridges, on the existing M4 any potential new relief road.  There are already significant complaints about the cost of the tolls on the Severn bridges and an additional burden on motorists and businesses can no way be justified.  A far more realistic financially viable longer term fix to the problem of the exiting M4 would be to upgrade the Southern Distributor Road – something that would offer a realistic more easily accessible alternative route in the event of any future M4 blocking accidents.

This solution would not only provide an alternative route to the M4 in the event of periodic accident related closures and congestion but would provide much better value for money coming in at around £300 million. If you are going to spend what is in effect public money then the bottom line is that you need to work it hard and maximise every benefit and every gain for the tax payers who will end up paying for it one way or another. With more powers come greater responsibilities  and with them both should come greater public accountability and transparency on the part of government when it comes to financial choices .