TEN LONG YEARS

The BBC liberates Kabul in 2001

The rout of the Taliban and their flight from Kabul (and most of Afghanistan) following NATO's invasion of Afghanistan (back in 2001) and the relative ease of victory was it turned out somewhat deceptive. If someone had told us ten years ago that some of our service personnel (including some of my relatives) would be effectively commuting to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban insurgency many people might well have doubted their sanity.

Yet NATO's war in Afghanistan War will be 10 years old this Friday (7th October), a pro-US government sits in Kabul, Osama Bin Laden is (admittedly somewhat belatedly) dead (and won't be missed by most)and NATO plans to leave in 2014. Job done? Not quite, the rules of the game and the objectives have changed. Despite the best efforts of the US and NATO the war shows no sign of drawing to a satisfactory conclusion however that will finally be measured.

No wonder that there will be no official commemoration or recognition of this anniversary in the USA. NATO casualties continue to mount and victory whatever that is may be as elusive as ever. The elusive nature of success in Afghanistan is partially down to the ongoing Taliban insurgency and its support and sanctuary from Pakistan, not to mention the Afghan government's spectacular corruption and incompetence.

CIA statistics record that Afghanistan has the world's second-highest infant mortality rate with 149.2 of every 1,000 children die before they reach their first birthday. At five years of age some 26 percent of them are dead. For those Afghan children who make it through childhood, six of every 10 will grow up stunted, ending up short in stature and mentally challenged as a result of malnutrition during the early years of life. Over 70 percent of Afghans are illiterate and life expectancy stands at 45 years of age (Angola's is worse).

Few impartial observers doubt that after NATO departs the Taliban and their militant allies will stream back into Afghanistan from their sanctuaries in Pakistan. By 2014 if Afghanistan's standing army is not ready and the Afghan government is not ready to support it then some thirteen years of war, thousands of lives, and billions of dollars will have been squandered for nothing and the country will fall will some pretty grim consequences, even by Afghan standards, especially for Afghan women.

Let's be honest, the US and NATO took their eye of the ball by invading Iraq, serious efforts to build up a serious Afghan army did not really begin until 2009. Before the Taliban insurgency began NATO's intention was to create a small Afghan force to deal with internal disorder of a domestic variety rather than a full scale insurgency. The new Afghan army would also provide the Afghan people with a visible sign of unity after several decades of conflict and civil war.

NATO training mission began in earnest around two years ago, at that point the Afghan army's desertion rate stood at around 85 percent. There have been some significant improvements from January to June (2011), NATO figures, show that around 24,000 soldiers, some 14 percent of the 170,000-man force, deserted.

Despite this relative good news ongoing problems with literacy and competence remain. Aside from fighting the insurgents, now NATO has got into the education process and operates numerous elementary schools. NATO estimates that Afghan security forces will reach around fifty percent overall literacy rates by 2012.

Another significant problem to be faced in 2014 is the Afghan government, which by most estimates is probably the most corrupt on earth. At present the levels of corruption show few signs of abating. Doctors working in government hospitals have been noted to leave wounded Afghan soldiers to expire in their hospital beds if bribes are not paid. For ordinary Afghans the medical infrastructure in the country could be best described as fragile.

Vast amounts of aid are being poured in Afghanistan, yet the Afghan government does not have a transparent, workable budget, at least not in the normal sense. For 2001 the Afghan budget is nominally $14.3 billion dollars over 90% of which comes from foreign aid, much of it purloined on the way to its intended purposes.

Once Afghanistan (just like Iraq) is out of sight and out of mind will the money keep flowing in. Or will the West make the same mistake is made in the late 1980s and drop any interest in the country? The last time that happened the Afghan people were abandoned following their effective defeat of a faltering Soviet Union, they paid the butchers bill in spades. After the civil war the Taliban swept into power...appearing reasonable in comparison with the warlords (who are NATO allies this time around) and we are all painfully aware of what followed.