FOR ‘NOT YET’ READ ‘NEVER’.

We live in a strange country where the First Minister is reluctant to take up the challenge of new borrowing powers and a degree of control of how some of the taxes we pay is spent. Perhaps for ‘Not Yet’ read ‘Never’. At the same time the Con Dem coalition Westminster government is pushing for all it’s worth the questionable economic and financial benefits of the proposed M4 Relief Road around Newport whilst simultaneously attempting to set by remote control the future economic priorities of the Welsh government for the next 20 years.

I have always believed that when it comes to spending public money, it is essential that it is worked exceptionally hard, with every single pound’s impact being maximized. The proposed M4 Relief Road is poor value for public money. There are easier and cheaper more deliverable alternatives to the proposed M4 Relief road in the shape of upgrading the A48, SDR and the Queensway across the Llanwern site and more investment in our railways (including the proposed metro light rail system amongst other things).

Behind all the spin and the waffle there are two key issues at stake which are directly related to the proposed M4 Relief Road. Firstly, we have a London based Westminster government attempting to remotely set the economic priorities for the Welsh Government and secondly, Westminster is attempting to predetermine a particularly questionably beneficial infrastructure project that could end up being paid for by the people of Wales for the next 20 years.

Potentially well over a billion pounds may be required to pay for the proposed M4 project, it has been estimated that the real cost may be closer to some £1.2 billion pounds. This project runs the risk of imposing some serious and unnecessary strains on Welsh finances and there are better projects with greater value for money and more measurable returns upon which any borrowed capital could and should be spent.

The Westminster government’s attempt to link borrowing powers and tax raising powers with the proposed M4 Relief Road is entirely unacceptable. The London-based Westminster government has no right to predetermine what the priorities, economic or otherwise of a Welsh Government should be any more than the EU does. Can you imagine the reaction if the EU attempted to tell a Westminster government what it’s economic and infrastructure priorities would be for the next decade, we would never ever hear the end of it, but, when it comes to our country that’s OK? I don’t think so… 

BORIS, TAX AND SPEND

Boris Johnson the London Mayor has called for devolved taxation for London, a first step to borrowing powers no doubt. The Westminster Government, the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly are able to borrow to invest funds in large infrastructure projects. Yet, we in Wales have no borrowing powers despite having law making powers, a situation that is both untenable and unjust in my opinion. The failure to include anything about borrowing powers in the pending Wales Bill, is a real  lost opportunity and perpetuates the constitutional status quo. 

In the modern world, despite the banking crisis, whether we like it or not governments borrow, the real argument should not be over borrowing powers, rather about what infrastructure schemes that our government in Cardiff wants to invest in and whether they deliver value for money. A variety of  dubious expensive infrastructure projects have been touted from time to time as providing the justification for having borrowing powers including the exceptionally poor value for money and environmentally destructive M4 Relief road.

The hair brained M4 relief road across the Gwent levels would come in at around £1 billion pounds plus and would provide few realistic medium, let alone long term benefits, as it is a short term solution. Amongst the reasons why the option of the M4 relief road (South of Newport) was dropped relatively recently a few years ago; aside for the financial cost (around £1 billion pounds) and environmental impact was the key issue of the funding model. Ministers were advised that not only would the new relief road to be subjected to tolls, but so would the existing M4 would also be tolled. 

Interestingly enough the only other toll road in the UK is the M6 in the Midlands which has seen toll prices increase by 175% since it was opened. Another reason why this option was dropped was because of evidence gained from the operation of the M6 toll road - which had never made any money because motorists can avoid it by using nearby non tolled motorways.  That M6 tolled Motorway has seen the number of users drop and it has done nothing to reduce congestion.

It is simply unacceptable for motorists to end up paying tolls on the Severn bridges, on the existing M4 any potential new relief road.  There are already significant complaints about the cost of the tolls on the Severn bridges and an additional burden on motorists and businesses can no way be justified.  A far more realistic financially viable longer term fix to the problem of the exiting M4 would be to upgrade the Southern Distributor Road – something that would offer a realistic more easily accessible alternative route in the event of any future M4 blocking accidents.

This solution would not only provide an alternative route to the M4 in the event of periodic accident related closures and congestion but would provide much better value for money coming in at around £300 million. If you are going to spend what is in effect public money then the bottom line is that you need to work it hard and maximise every benefit and every gain for the tax payers who will end up paying for it one way or another. With more powers come greater responsibilities  and with them both should come greater public accountability and transparency on the part of government when it comes to financial choices . 

STILL WAITING FOR CARWYN AND GEORGE

The Labour in Wales run Welsh Government has now promised an update on its stance on the M4 Relief Road by mid-July – so much for the previous promise f a decision by the end of last year or early this year. None of this brings the slightest crumb of comfort, peace of mind or clarity to the residents of Brynglas (in Shaftesbury ward in Newport) whose homes may yet still be threatened by a new tunnel.

They have been left in the lurch as they are now going to have to wait until mid July before they hear about the fate of their homes. Until the Welsh Government announces its conclusions from what was a significantly flawed consultation exercise on the M4 which looked at a number of options, including improving the existing M4, a variety of upgrades to the Southern Distributor Road (SDR), the construction of a new tunnel and a new M4 relief road across the Gwent levels south of Newport – people continue to live in limbo.

We are still well short of the white smoke from either Westminster or Cardiff Bay as no agreement between the Con Dem Government and Welsh Government on how any relief road (George Osborne’s’ favoured option) would be funded has been reached. What has been quietly overlooked in relation to the on-going problems with the M4 and some of the larger options for dealing with the traffic congestion on the existing M4 is the problem of the funding model.

Amongst the reasons why the option of the M4 relief road (South of Newport) was dropped a few years ago; aside for the financial cost (around £1 billion pounds) and environmental impact was the key issue of the funding model. Ministers were advised that not only would the new relief road to be subjected to tolls, but the existing M4 would also be tolled.  Interestingly enough the only other toll road in the UK is the M6 in the Midlands which has seen toll prices increase by 175% since it was opened.

Another one of the reasons why this option was dropped was because of evidence gained from the operation of the M6 toll road - which had never made any money because motorists can avoid it by using nearby non tolled motorways.  That tolled Motorway has seen the number of users drop and it has done nothing to reduce congestion.

It is simply unacceptable for motorists to end up paying tolls on the Severn bridges, on the existing M4 any potential new relief road.  There are already significant complaints about the cost of the tolls on the Severn bridges and an additional burden on motorists and businesses can no way be justified. This is why Plaid Ministers in the then One Wales Government took  officials’ advice not to proceed go ahead with the relief road but opted to work to ease congestion around Newport by using the southern distribution road (SDR) as an alternative route.

What, in the seriously flawed consultation process, was Option C which would involve the grade separation of some junctions and partial or full closure of other junctions on the Newport A48 Southern Distributor Road was the most sensible option if combined with improvements to the existing M4.  This option would not only provide an alternative route to the M4 in the event of periodic accident related closures and congestion but would provide much better value for money coming in at around £300m. Incidentally the option D which included a new tunnel and widening of the M4 was priced at around £500 million.

At the moment the Labour in Wales Government and the Con Dem Westminster Government appear to be in favour of the most expensive (financially and environmentally) option – their only quarrel appears to be how it will be funded and whether or not it will be tolled. My own personal theory is that one of the reasons why Government at various levels favour the more expensive options may have something to do with the ongoing (and pretty profitable) if questionable relationship between Government and the Construction industry.