AFTER THE PARTY IS OVER...

Despite the column inches, the wall to wall TV coverage and the spin, it is worth noting that UKIP only won a seat in Scotland at all because the Lib Dems imploded. Their success in Wales, while looking impressive was not quite enough to deliver a top of the poll position (although they came pretty close). It was an uncomfortable night for the Westminster based and Westminster focused political parties.

Despite the momentary glee on the part of the ‘Brit’ political commentators last night the SNP still came top of the poll in Scotland. In England, things were different, here UKIP came top (save for in a few of the electoral regions). For a while last night, the Conservatives and the Labour Parties struggled merely to secure second place. The Lib Dems pretty much ceased to register across England at least on the European level, coming in behind the Greens.

Does UKIP speak for England? 

After the European elections and the local government elections (in England) perhaps it’s time for a Party for England, to raise English concerns and English issues – which have long been ignored by the London based UK media, UKIP and the misnamed Westminster elite. I mention this because on more than few occasions disillusioned voters (in England) have told that they have nowhere to go politically as none of the political parties operating in England speak for them.

If you follow this line of reasoning, there is not much choice if you are an English voter and are genuinely concerned about your country. Well that’s actually not quite true, as there is a degree of choice providing that your politics sits on the extreme right of the political spectrum. There is UKIP, which despite presenting itself as a UK Party is culturally perhaps deep down more concerned with independence of England, something which may explain why it does less well in Scotland and slightly less well here in Wales.  

Of course there are the English Democrats, who on a good day,  to be honest can make Nigel Farage look slightly to the left of Lenin, as they are somewhat to the right of Attila the Hun. As for UKIP, their interest in Wales is simply a matter of electoral expediency even more so than the Westminster based parties who do make some vague gestures to Wales by periodically branding themselves as Welsh.

I have no doubt that UKIP, despite recent public change of heart,  would if it could entirely abolish the National Assembly, along with our emergent democracy (and perhaps Wales itself) if it could get away with it.  Policy wise UKIP is a strange blend of latent (and not so latent) bigotry, some of the stranger political and economic elements of American libertarianism (the Tea Party strain) and a nostalgic (almost 18^th century) vision of Greater England (sorry Britain) that has not existed in fifty years (if it ever did then).

Putting the obsessive fixation with referenda on EU membership aside, UKIP’s grip on political and economic reality might be described as fragile at best. Our (Welsh) national interests and concerns being entirely absent, if left to UKIP, regional aid (European and otherwise) to our country would entirely vanish and not be replaced - it’s already under threat from the Westminster based political parties.

Regional aid historically has been  used by Westminster based governments to attempt to redress the glaring economic  imbalance that exists today (and has existed for much of the last century) between much of Wales and significant portions (but certainly not all) of England. One question the Westminster based political parties have failed to answer is - if the Union has been so beneficial to us here in Wales over the last 40 years then why are we even eligible for regional development aid?

I digress, the one real question that probably should be really be asked  in England is not why is there no viable rational left of centre English political party, but perhaps the question should be where has it gone? Along with why is it that a monopoly of the sense of 'Englishness' being defined by the far right. Historically, at least, there was a pretty solid radical tradition in England, at least until it was smothered by the emergence of the monolithic Labour Party - who sold themselves to the Westminster system in the early 1920’s. 

Perhaps George Orwell, in The Lion and the Unicorn: Socialism and the English Genius, which was published on the 19^th January 1941, identified the underlying problem with England and political representation that applies as much today as it did then,  wrote:

“England is not the jewelled isle of Shakespeare's much-quoted message, nor is it the inferno depicted by Dr Goebbels. More than either it resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family, with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons. It has rich relations who have to be kow-towed to and poor relations who are horribly sat upon, and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income. It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts...”

At the moment ‘England’ is being run by the irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts, but, enough of Nigel Farage, George Osbourne and Nick Clegg. Sooner or later, preferably sooner, a rational political party needs to emerge to articulate English concerns and to redress them. From a Welsh perspective the rise or at least the reanimation of a sense of English national consciousness, should pose no problems for Wales, though we might well ask why has it taken so long?

DAVE’S EUROPEAN DREAM

Well yesterday Dave went and finally did it and has possibly set the stage for a referendum on the UK’s future in or out of Europe.  As David Cameron pledged to put renegotiated UK membership of the European Union to the electorate in a referendum sometime in 2017.  This of course works on two significant assumptions coming to pass; firstly the rest of Europe goes along with a renegotiation that the Brit’s never really objected to and secondly the Conservatives manage to win an outright majority at the next Westminster general election.

David Cameron

As for Cameron’s motivations, they may have more to do with the fact that his party is down in the polls and under threat from UKIP. As noted by the YouGov Poll for the Sun (dated 22nd January 2013) which suggests a Labour majority of 96 (pre speech) may have reared large in Tory minds. I suspect that any referendum debate if it ever occurs (the ‘if’ is significant) will not necessarily be clothed in any degree of rationality.

Even if all these things come to pass, I don’t expect any form of rational balanced sensible debate on Europe. I have little doubt that there will be a great deal of scare mongering, blatant inconsistencies and downright untruths about Europe in the run up to a referendum.  To gain an idea as to what a no campaign may look like then simply take a long hard look at the way the unionist NO campaign is playing out in Scotland.

UK Polling has noted that when it comes to referenda, polls consistently show that people support the idea of a referendum on Europe. They also reveal that people would like a referendum on almost any subject they get asked about. This flags up an interesting point, in that polls showing people approve of the referendum don’t necessarily mean that people think that it (whatever it may be) is an important issue and that they necessarily crying out for a referendum on that particular issue.

Of all the problems people face, ironically Europe comes pretty low down the list. UK Polling suggests that when asked what the important issues facing people themselves and their families, then Europe is even lower down. Yet, when it comes to Europe, my anecdotal experience on the doorstep and on the street is that a significant number of ordinary voters perceive the EU as a bad thing.

I for one believe that the EU which needs some serious reform (not just in relation to the common agricultural policy) and also needs to be fully democratic. Criticism aside the EU actually does some good and as has been noted elsewhere in a recent report published by Plaid MEP Jill Evans which shows that Wales is a net beneficiary of EU membership. The bottom line actually being that we in Wales get more out of Europe than we pay in to the tune of about £40 a year per person, yet most people don’t see it and tend to view Europe (if asked) as a problem.

Significantly, and somewhat alarmingly what many people in Wales appear to have missed is the fact that both the Conservative and the Labour parties are calling for an end to EU regional policy. Thanks to this Wales has been able to tap into structural funding to create jobs and build the economy in some of our poorest areas, as well as substantial agricultural support for our farmers in rural Wales.

Wales has received more than 2 billion pounds in EU structural funding over the past seven years not to mention other forms of financial support for example, for students, fisheries and small businesses.  What’s actually been done with the money is another issue! Perhaps if Westminster had actually worked for Wales and protected Welsh interests then we would never have needed or been eligible for European regional funding.

Over recent years UKIP has got away largely unchallenged by most political parties with peddling some right old tosh, as political parties have tried to stay away from Europe as it is perceived in some circles as a vote loser on the doorstep.  To blindly dismiss UKIP as some form of better dressed red in the face hyperventilating version of the BNP and to refuse to engage in as a serious and rational debate on the EU sets a dangerous precedent one that could have serious implications if we ever get to a referendum on EU membership.

That said, even amongst UKIP voters (when analysed in 2009) Europe came in as the fourth most important issue after the economy, immigration and crime. As late as December 2012, Lord Ashcroft noted that even amongst people considering voting for UKIP, the economy was one of their most important issues (68%), followed by immigration (52%), welfare dependency (46%),  Europe came in as the fifth most important issue (27%).

So the Conservatives, under pressure from UKIP and behind Labour in the Polls and with their increasingly uneasy Lib Dem coalition partners things could get spectacularly messy poll wise really quickly. Most people are more concerned with the economy, jobs, housing, the NHS, pensions, crime, etc – so if the Conservatives overly focus on Europe to the point of obsession… then they will end up looking even more out of touch to ordinary peoples real more pressing concerns.

BETWEEN THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP BLUE SEA

David Cameron is currently between devil and the deep blue sea over Europe, what with pro European and less than pro European Conservatives putting in their two euros worth and UKIP appealing to his right wing. On top of this he has to continue to appease his pro European Lib Dem coalition partners and also has to try not irritate or annoy his Americans Allies and the UK’s other European partners.

Last Wednesday the US Assistant Secretary of European Affairs, Philip Gordon, effectively issued a public warning that the US wanted to see a continued strong UK voice within the EU. The make things worse, some members of a cross-party delegation from the Bundestag's EU Affairs committee handily visiting London also expressed the view that a British departure from the EU could damage relations with Washington for both London and Brussels.

Europe - a Conservative self inflicted wound?

We have come a long way from the days of ‘Call me Dave’,’ I am sure that Dave could do without all these interventions, he and some of the other Euro sceptics might wish (quietly) that everyone else mind their own business. Now perhaps ironically he may begin to understand how the Scots and the Catalans feel in regard to outside intervention in their referendums on their constitutional futures.

Privately I suspect that PM no doubt hopes the whole thing EU membership thing can be put to bed until after the next Westminster election in 2015, preferably without having to commit publically to any real meaningful referendum.  The PM’s problem is that he is facing pressure to hold a referendum on Europe during the next Parliament and has gone so far as to say that the Conservatives will offer voters "real change" and "real choice" on the UK's position in Europe at the next Westminster election.

Things can only get better?

Any referendum on Europe is dependent upon a variety of factors: it will happen if the Conservatives will a working majority in the next Westminster Parliament so that they are not dependent on the Lib Dems . Even then it’s not plain sailing as Cameron has then to persuade other European countries  (including Germany and France) that there is a clear need to change the last EU treaty.

It is also worth noting that also any post 2015 referendum will also be dependent upon the Conservatives being able to get what they want in any negotiations with the EU. And finally any European referendum is dependent upon David Cameron believing that he can win it (which pretty much will confirm that whatever the question may be it won’t be a simple yes (in) or No ( out) choice. Unless those conditions are all met there won’t be a referendum.

We lived in a different world, the last time the electorate was given a vote on Europe was in 1975 (I was 9) - on referendum day the Sun editorial called on people to vote to stay in the then Common Market. The last thing the Conservatives, the Lib Dems or the Labour Party in Westminster want to end up doing is to give the electorate anything like an meaningful debate (or choice) on Europe, whether in, out or shake it about, they would far rather discuss it behind closed doors in Westminster and keep the electorate at arm’s length.

TYPICAL UKIP

The absence of a St David's Day bank holiday for Wales from the UKIP manifesto, which included reference to a St George's Day bank holiday for England, just about sums UKIP's attitude to Wales up... out of site and out of mind. And that's before you start to examine their tax proposals, which make interesting reading.